Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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February 4 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On February 4, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Continued to Improve in January.”  The subtitle is “Index improves for third consecutive month.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index improved slightly for the month of January, climbing to -16 from -19 in December. Although a disheartening jobs report and steep stock market losses negatively affected …

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Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – February 4, 2014 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through yesterday’s closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, …

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U.S. Dollar Decline – February 3, 2014 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial …

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