Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2013 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2013 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 25.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2013 : 1.7%

full-year 2014 : 2.6%

full-year 2015:  2.8%

full-year 2016:  2.7%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2013: 7.5%

for 2014: 7.0%

for 2015: 6.4%

for 2015: 6.0%

As for “the chance of a contraction in real GDP” in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 11.3%, 11.1%, 11.6%, 11.7% and 12.2% for each of the quarters from Q4 2013 through Q4 2014, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2022) with the median expected inflation of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.1%-2.3% range.


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1802.48 as this post is written