Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities

October 1 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On October 1, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Dips During Budget Battle.”  The subtitle is “Index falls to -19 in September from -13 in August.” Notable excerpts include: As the fiscal battles in Washington intensified last month and the federal government inched closer to its first shutdown in 17 years, Americans’ confidence … Read more October 1 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – October 4, 2013 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – October 4, 2013 Update

Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – October 3, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on October 3, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to September 27, … Read more St. Louis Financial Stress Index – October 3, 2013 Update

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – October 3, 2013 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through yesterday’s closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, … Read more Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – October 3, 2013 Update

Various Thoughts Concerning The Safety Of Money Market Funds

I have written extensively about how my analyses indicate the existence of many asset bubbles.  These asset bubbles, and their dynamics, pose a great danger to investors, especially during times of heavy selling pressures and concomitant liquidation that accompanies significant market distress.  My analyses indicate that these heavy selling pressures will be especially high during … Read more Various Thoughts Concerning The Safety Of Money Market Funds

Financial Stocks – October 2, 2013 Update Concerning Poor “Price Action”

On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.”  This post is the latest update of that message. Although financial stocks have (in general) increased in price since 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting.  I view the poor … Read more Financial Stocks – October 2, 2013 Update Concerning Poor “Price Action”

Financial Stocks – Relative Price To Overall Stock Market – October 2, 2013 Update

In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable.  It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would … Read more Financial Stocks – Relative Price To Overall Stock Market – October 2, 2013 Update

U.S. Dollar Decline – October 1, 2013 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial … Read more U.S. Dollar Decline – October 1, 2013 Update