The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 13, 2013. The headline is “Shutdown Likely to Prolong Fed’s Stimulus.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
Here is one excerpt I found notable:
Whenever the government finally reopens, it isn’t clear whether it will be able to produce economic data covering the month of October. Even if it does, the economic volatility from the shutdown will cause reports covering October, November and possibly December to be head-scratchers given the one-time hits over that period.
As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 16%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2013: 2.0%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2013: 7.2%
December 2014: 6.6%
December 2015: 6.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2013: 2.88%
December 2014: 3.47%
December 2015: 3.94%
CPI:
December 2013: 1.7%
December 2014: 2.1%
December 2015: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2013: $101.38
for 12/31/2014: $98.22
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1710.14 as this post is written