Measuring QE’s Impact

I have written extensively about Quantitative Easing (QE) and Interventions as I believe many aspects of these practices lack recognition and understanding.   My analyses indicate that QE (also referred to as “Large-Scale Asset Purchases” (LSAPs)) in general carries an array of risks, detrimental impacts, and unintended consequences.  It has complex impacts on the economy and markets. Over time, … Read moreMeasuring QE’s Impact

NFIB Small Business Optimism – August 2013

The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, August 13.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small-Business Optimism? Not So Much.”  The subtitle is “July Index Increases Marginally.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .6 points in July to 94.1. Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find … Read moreNFIB Small Business Optimism – August 2013

The August 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 12, 2013.  The headline is “Analysts See Growth Worthy of a Fed Pullback.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. As to … Read moreThe August 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Zillow Q3 2013 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On August 8, the Zillow Q3 2013 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the Press Release: The survey of 106 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists was sponsored by leading real estate information marketplace Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) and is conducted quarterly … Read moreZillow Q3 2013 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 9, 2013 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 9, 2013 Update

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – August 8, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on August 8, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to August 2, … Read moreSt. Louis Financial Stress Index – August 8, 2013 Update

Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models

Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities

Thoughts Concerning The Business Cycle

Undoubtedly, many will find the defining and classification of the business cycle to be semantics – figuring that economic activity “is what it is.”   However, I believe that the correct interpretation of the business cycle is imperative  in understanding future implications and correctly setting expectations. Of course, the “official” entity for defining and classifying … Read moreThoughts Concerning The Business Cycle

Building Financial Danger – August 8, 2013 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 27th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains  many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous … Read moreBuilding Financial Danger – August 8, 2013 Update