The Impact Of Rising Interest Rates

With the recent increase in interest rates, perhaps the paramount question is what impact a rising interest rate environment will have on the economy. First, for reference, here is a long-term chart of interest rates from 1962, as seen in Doug Short’s post of August 17 titled “Treasury Yields In Perspective” : (click on chart … Read moreThe Impact Of Rising Interest Rates

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of … Read moreTrends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2013, 2014, And 2015

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” of August 20, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2013 estimate: $110.70/share … Read moreS&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2013, 2014, And 2015

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2013 & 2014 – As Of August 15, 2013

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 15, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $108.41/share … Read moreStandard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2013 & 2014 – As Of August 15, 2013

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2013

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2013 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 20, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 8/16/13 (incorporating data through 8/9/13) the WLI was … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators August 2013

Philadelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2013 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2013 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 16.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2013 : 1.5% full-year 2014 : 2.6% full-year 2015: … Read morePhiladelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2013 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – August 16, 2013 Update

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of August 17 … Read moreMarkets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – August 16, 2013 Update

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 16, 2013 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 16, 2013 Update

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – August 15, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on August 15, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to August 9, … Read moreSt. Louis Financial Stress Index – August 15, 2013 Update

Walmart’s Q2 2014 Results – Comments

I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2014 earnings call transcript (pdf) dated August 15, 2013.  I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices.  I have previously commented on their quarterly conference call comments; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts … Read moreWalmart’s Q2 2014 Results – Comments