St. Louis Financial Stress Index – June 6, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on June 6, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to May 31, …

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Building Financial Danger – June 7, 2013 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 25th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains  many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …

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Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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June 4 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On June 4, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Continues to Improve in May”  The subtitle is “Upper-income Americans’ Confidence enters positive territory.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index surged to -7 in May, the highest monthly score since Gallup began tracking economic confidence daily in 2008. The current score surpasses the …

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Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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U.S. Dollar Decline – June 3, 2013 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial …

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