March 2013 Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts

On March 13 the March Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: The survey, which concluded March 8, also revealed significant concerns about the U.S. economy. Despite improvements in confidence, …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – March 14, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on March 14, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to March 8, …

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Corporate Bond Yields And OASs

I often write about interest rates and related topics as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble. The characteristics and price levels of corporate bonds is highly noteworthy. For reference purposes, here are two bond indices and their FRED charts, as well as depictions of their spreads (as …

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Disturbing Charts (Update 10)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 44 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These charts raise …

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Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …

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U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of March 8, 2013

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. …

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – March 2013

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …

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