America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of March 21, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.16/share …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his March 25 blog post, titled “Real Median Household Incomes: Down $590 in February” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 25, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 3/22/13 (incorporating data through 3/15/13) the WLI was at …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on March 21, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to March 15, …
On Wednesday, March 20, 2013 Ben Bernanke gave his scheduled press conference. Below are Ben Bernanke’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference“(preliminary)(pdf) of March 20, 2013, with …
On March 18, the Zillow March 2013 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. (please note: as stated in the Press Release, “This is the first survey edition that utilized the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) as the reference benchmark for the panel’s home price expectations.”) Various charts from …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 22 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 18, 2013. The headline is “Easy Money Era a Long Game for Fed.” Although I don’t agree with various aspects of the survey’s contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. …