America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on December 20, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 14, …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 19 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of December 19 …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 13, 2012: Year 2012 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $99.46/share …
In the December 15 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Outlook 2013.” Included in the story, 10 stock-market strategists give various forecasts for 2013 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: The 10 strategists recently surveyed by Barron’s see more gains ahead next year. …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 17, 2012. The headline is “Economy Poised to Nudge Ahead in 2013.” Although I don’t agree with various aspects of the survey’s contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. A …
On Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Ben Bernanke gave his scheduled press conference. Below are Ben Bernanke’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference“(preliminary)(pdf) of December 12, 2012, with …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on December 13, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 7, …
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, December 11. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Owner Confidence Plunges More than 5 Points.” The subtitle is “One of the lowest optimism readings in survey history.” The Index of Small Business Optimism fell by 5.6 point in November to 87.5. Here …