The August 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 10, 2012.  The headline is “‘Fiscal Cliff’ Weighs on Growth.”

Much of the commentary discusses the ‘fiscal cliff’ and its ramifications.

In the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), there was this question: “Is the risk to your 2012 growth forecast more to the upside or downside?” to which 79% indicated “downside” and 21% “upside.”

Also in the Q&A section, there was the this question: “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months.”  The responses averaged 22%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2012:  1.9%

full-year 2013:  2.4%

full-year 2014:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2012: 8.1%

December 2013: 7.7%

December 2014:  7.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2012: 1.83%

December 2013: 2.55%

December 2014:  3.25%


December 2012:  1.9%

December 2013:  2.2%

December 2014:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2012: $90.96

for 12/31/2013: $93.77

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1399.13 as this post is written