The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 16, 2012. The headline is “Recovery Slows as Global Risks Rise.”
I found various excerpts to be notable, including the following:
Most economists still expect the U.S. to avoid falling into a recession. But they project lackluster growth of about 2% for the rest of the year, a pace that is too slow to bring down the unemployment rate and that leaves little buffer if the crisis in Europe deepens, which many experts believe is likely as Greek citizens head to the polls on Sunday.
The downshift is a reversal from earlier this year, when several months of strong job growth and accelerating consumer spending buoyed hopes that the U.S. was finally breaking out of its slump. Many economists suggested the recovery at last had enough momentum to carry it through another patch of grim news at home or abroad.
Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the economists responded that the “probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months” averages 19%; furthermore, as to whether “the risk to your 2012 growth forecast” is “more to the upside or downside,” 91% said to the downside.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2012: 2.3%
full-year 2013: 2.5%
full-year 2014: 3.0%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2012: 7.9%
December 2013: 7.5%
December 2014: 6.9%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 2.12%
December 2013: 2.83%
December 2014: 3.47%
CPI:
December 2012: 2.0%
December 2013: 2.3%
December 2014: 2.5%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $89.81
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1357.26 as this post is written