America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Three years ago today the S&P500 made its daily low close of 676.53. (It made the ultimate intraday low of 666.79 on the prior trading day, March 6, 2009). Many, including myself, consider March 9, 2009 as the start of this stock market advance. There are two charts I would like to highlight as …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of March 8, 2012 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Real Estate Value declined $213 billion in Q4.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 4Q 2011 report: (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (their latest estimates are as of February 29), their estimates for 2012 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $104.89/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
In previous posts I have written extensively of the intervention measures taken by the Federal Reserve, including the many risks involved with Quantitative Easing measures. One of the risks is the resulting size of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio and its inherent susceptibility to large (on a mark-to-market basis, as opposed to accounting basis) losses. …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief seventh update to that post. The current forecasting consensus among economists and investment professionals is one of slow (U.S.) economic growth, steady if not rising financial markets, and low probabilities (in two …
In the Wall Street Journal of March 3-4, there was a notable article titled “Playing the Profit Wave.” The article discusses various aspects of corporate profitability, foremost among them whether profit margins are peaking. I believe that this subject is of great importance currently, and many facets deserve greater recognition; especially, the lagging growth in …
On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” Although financial stocks have increased in price in 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator …
In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …