America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I have frequently commented how my overall analysis indicates that our economic situation is of high complexity. This complexity also applies to movements in the financial markets. As such, predicting the timing of various major stock market events, such as major tops, bottoms, and especially “crashes” is difficult. That being said, a variety of factors …
This post is an update to previous posts concerning food stamps. The program is officially called “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” or SNAP. As stated on the SNAP website, “As of Oct. 1, 2008, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the new name for the federal Food Stamp Program.” The data was last updated February 1, 2012, reflecting November 2011 levels. …
In yesterday’s post (“Notable Technical And Sentiment Extremes In The Stock Market“) I mentioned the VIX level of 20 and its significance. I first wrote of the VIX level of 20 as an important demarcation in the discussions of the VIX in 2009. It continues to be an important level, serving both as technical support …
In this post I would like to highlight various areas which I believe indicate excessively positive sentiment and problematical technical analysis measures in the stock market. While the full list is extensive, I believe the list below represents a “sample” of how there is a high level of “frothiness” and other excess in the markets, …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On January 25, Gallup published poll results in a release titled “Americans Divided on Whether U.S. Economic System Is Unfair.” In the poll results, it is seen that 45% think the economic system is “fair” while 49% think it is “unfair,” with 6% having “no opinion.” The poll also asks “Do you think the U.S. …
Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. -an excerpt from the FOMC Statement of January 25, 2012 On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief fifth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
Up until this point I have not commented upon the situation at MF Global. Two recent articles highlight the current state of what appears to be known and unknown concerning the situation, including the potential of customers to “get their money back.” These two articles are the January 30 Wall Street Journal article titled “Money …