America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the October 17 post (“Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy“) I mentioned in point #6 “…numerous signs of broad-based financial strain among households.” A November 10 Gallup poll titled “Americans’ Ability to Afford Food Nears Three-Year Low” illustrates one of these strains. Here are what I found as the most …
On June 29 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” I continue to believe that the “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator among (very) many that serves as a “red flag” as to …
In the June 29 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would indicate. …
The October NFIB Small Business Optimism was released November 8. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Has Minor Uptick: Optimism Index Slight Uptick Still Weighed Down by Dominant Negative Forecast.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 1.3 points in October, rising to 90.2. Here are some excerpts from the report that I …
In the August 9 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of November 7 (“Fed Intervention and …
On Wednesday November 2 Ben Bernanke gave his scheduled Press Conference. Here are Ben Bernanke’s comments I found most notable, although I don’t necessarily agree with them. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference” of November 2 2011 (preliminary) (pdf), with Bernanke’s responses as indicated to the various questions: from page 4 (Opening …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
Yesterday saw the release of the Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, November 2011 (pdf). Of note, since January, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its economic growth forecasts. _____ I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with …