4th Quarter 2023 Corporate Profits

Today’s (March 28, 2024) GDP release (Q4 2023, Third Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) …

Read more

The CFO Survey First Quarter 2024 – Notable Excerpts

On March 27, 2024 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: CFOs revised upward their expectations for real GDP growth over …

Read more

Money Supply Charts Through February 2024

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

Read more

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through January 2024) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of March 26, 2024 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index…“: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as …

Read more

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through February 2024

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2024, updated on March 26, 2024. This value is $277,931 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

Read more

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2024

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 25, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .05: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

Read more

The U.S. Economic Situation – March 22, 2024 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

Read more

Jerome Powell’s March 20, 2024 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, March 20, 2024 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled March 2024 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …

Read more

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 21, 2024 update (reflecting data through March 15, 2024) is -.9347: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

Read more

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March …

Read more