The September 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

I found a few items of interest in the September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey.

Perhaps the most interesting were the questions asked of the economists, including “Why is the U.S. recovery so disappointingly slow?”

Also, similar to recent surveys in which this double-dip question has been asked, the survey said “The economists on average put a 22% chance on another recession, or double-dip, hitting the U.S. economy in the next 12 months.”

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

Ten-Year Treasury Yield:

for 12/31/2010: 2.9%

for 12/31/2011: 3.78%


for 12/1/2010: 1.1%

for 12/1/2011: 1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

for 12/1/2010: 9.6%

for 12/1/2011: 8.9%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2010: $75.49

for 12/31/2011: $79.99


full-year 2010 : 2.5%

full-year 2011 : 2.8%

As compared to last month’s survey, there were various material changes.

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1121.9 as this post is written