The August 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

I found a few items of interest in the August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey.

Perhaps the most interesting (and perhaps provocative item) was the following:

“”It is irresponsible nonsense to claim that tax cuts ‘pay for themselves,’ ” said Nicholas Perna of Perna Associates.”

As well, there a variety of interesting questions asked of the economists.  These questions are seen in the Q&A section of the detail.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

Ten-Year Treasury Yield:

for 12/31/2010: 3.22%

for 12/31/2011: 4.08%


for 12/1/2010: 1.1%

for 12/1/2011: 1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

for 12/1/2010: 9.4%

for 12/1/2011: 8.6%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2010: $78.48

for 12/31/2011: $81.96


full-year 2010 : 2.9%

full-year 2011 : 2.9%

As compared to last month’s survey, there were some material changes.

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with the many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1079.25 as this post is written