America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers. I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010. As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …
Here are two articles on Ben Bernanke that I found interesting. There is much I could comment upon in each. I disagree or otherwise have differing opinions on various statements in these articles; however, I do feel the stories are valuable as they present an in-depth look at Ben Bernanke from a historical and philosophical perspective. …
Here are two interviews that I found interesting. Although I don’t necessarily agree with all of the views voiced by Jim Rogers and Ron Paul, I think both interviews are well worth watching. Here is the Jim Rogers interview (length 5:20), titled “What Recovery? America’s Problems ‘Getting Worse, Not Better,’ Jim Rogers Says” on Yahoo …
Yesterday The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Debtor’s Dilemma: Pay the Mortgage or Walk Away.” Here is the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126100260600594531.html The article has a variety of statistics and views on the issue of “strategic defaults.” As well, it discusses the legality and consequences of such. I have previously written numerous blog posts on the issue of …
Here are two charts that I find notable. The first is the daily chart of the US Dollar. I have added the 50-day moving average. As one can see, the trend seems to be “up.” This increase, if sustained, will pressure the US Dollar carry trade and that would likely have an outsized negative impact on various markets: …
In my opinion, the existence of asset price bubbles is of paramount importance. I have recently written a few posts on the subject. I would now like to comment on a Wall Street Journal article from Monday titled “Economists Warn of Asset-Price Bubbles.” Here is the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126074172673289729.html First, I would like to reiterate that I …
In his December 7 speech, Ben Bernanke made the following comments with regard to the role of The Federal Reserve. For now, I will post an excerpt I found notable, and may comment upon it at a later date: “In all of these efforts, our objective has not been to support specific financial institutions or markets for …
I would like to briefly comment on Ben Bernanke’s December 7 speech, that can be found at this link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091207a.htm Here is one excerpt that I found notable: “Economic forecasts are subject to great uncertainty, but my best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year–sufficient to …
The following chart shows a Weekly Log Chart of the S&P500 from 2007. I have drawn a trendline from the October 2007 highs as well as a retracement indicator from the March 2009 bottom of ~666. (Please note that the trendline and retracement both might be off by a “hair,” but this is relatively immaterial …
In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …