America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is a Wall Street Journal editorial from Monday: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298004574459341050610398.html I found it interesting for two reasons. First, it has a chart that shows the actual Unemployment Rate vs. that forecast in “The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.” Currently the Unemployment Rate is approximately 2% above the rate forecasted with the stimulus. Second, the editorial …
Here is a story from The New York Times of October 8 that discusses the situation at the FHA: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/09/business/09fha.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2 What I found particularly interesting in this story was a quote from Barney Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee: “I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he …
Here is another economic forecast survey, this time from NABE: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33278490/ From the article: “The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.” The survey’s results for 2010 GDP and …
I would like to highlight a couple of facets of the latest Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125494927938671631.html?mod=djemalertNEWS As stated, “The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 52 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well …
I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25. Here is Press Release: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/ Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October …
Here is an October 5 Wall Street Journal editorial reviewing the “Cash For Clunkers” stimulus plan: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703628304574453280766443704.html Also, to provide perspective, a chart of Vehicle Sales from the CalculatedRisk blog (10/1 post) at this link: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/light-vehicle-sales-92-million-saar-in.html As one can see, the “Cash for Clunkers” seems to have been successful in temporarily causing a surge in auto sales for July and …
Here is an October 1 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal titled “Stimulus Spending Doesn’t Work” : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574440723298786310.html Although I don’t concur with some of the statements in this Op-Ed, I do believe that its overall message and conclusions are important. SPX at 1054.72 as this post is written
From time to time, I will write posts that contain the Unemployment Rate or various other job loss measures. I show these statistics as they are widely used and quoted by others. From my perspective, however, the methodology used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics does not provide an accurate depiction. There are a variety …
I would like to present an interesting chart on job losses. My last chart concerning job losses was posted on September 10. The commentary I presented there is still highly applicable to the latest unemployment numbers. This chart is from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ from October 2. I like this chart as it presents a depiction of the relative severity …
On Tuesday The Wall Street Journal published an editorial on the FHA (Federal Housing Administration). I found it to be a good overview of the situation there. The editorial can be found at this link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574428970233151130.html I find this FHA situation highly disconcerting, especially in light of how similar situations have played out, and are playing out, …