America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Please note – some might find this post disturbing In this post I will summarize my thoughts on the markets, particularly the stock market. As has been the case since the Economic Crisis began, any stock market weakness will most likely be mirrored in a variety of other markets as well, such as commodities, credit, etc. …
For this last post of this blog series, I will comment on the VIX. As seen below, if one looks casually at the VIX daily chart, there doesn’t seem to be much to be concerned about: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com However, I would like to make a couple of observations. First, as one can …
The price action in the S&P500 since the March low at ~666 has struck me as being very “impulsive.” This is certainly a cause for concern. Also, there certainly has not been any significant “wall of worry” that one would expect given the fundamentals. The charts seen in this post are from Maurice Walker, http://thechartpatterntrader.com. First, a …
Moving on to the stock market… The first chart is the NYSE Summation Index. I have put in the S&P500 as an overlay in green, with the NYSE Summation Index’s MACD at the bottom of the chart. What I find interesting here is the negative MACD divergence as indicated on the chart, in blue: Chart …
I have included two charts of the Ten-Year Treasury yields below – one daily and one monthly. The monthly is provided for a longer-term perspective. I would like to address the daily chart. It seems odd that in an environment in which inflation is (purportedly) a growing concern the economy is supposedly recovering faster than …
The next few posts will contain some of my thoughts on the markets from a Technical Analysis perspective. Typically I don’t comment about my observations from a technical perspective. However, I believe we are at a very critical juncture here in the markets. I am not aware of anyone discussing imminent peril in the markets right now, …
I’ve found it interesting that economic analysis is being categorized as coming from different political sources. For instance, it is often said that Ben Bernanke was appointed by a Republican, Paul Krugman is a “liberal economist,” etc. This type of classification was also seen in President Obama’s speech on Wednesday, when he said “…an idea …
Here is an updated chart from chartoftheday.com that I have shown and discussed previously, in my July 7 post: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090904.htm?T There are other charts similar to this, from other sources…however, I find this chart particularly interesting as it incorporates the long-term averages of two other periods. As I wrote in my July 7 post: “As …
I ran across this story about homeless children in the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/education/06homeless.html As I discussed in my September 3 post, I think it is important to have stories and statistics concerning poverty and misfortune published on a more frequent basis. While they are certainly disheartening, it is far better to have awareness of the trends and …
Lately I have seen a few articles that have openly stated that deflation would be a “positive” for individuals. There are various reasons given for this conclusion. One of the reasons that has been given is that deflation would lower the price of goods, and thereby increase purchasing power. My thought on the matter is …