Tag Archives: USA Today / IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index

Updates On Economic Indicators November 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 21, 2011:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the November 8 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The October update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.1% by March. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 11/11/11 the WLI was at 122.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.8%.

A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of November 18 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Decline in Growth Index Continues to Moderate” :

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 11-12-09 to 11-12-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the November 18 release, the LEI was at 117.4 and the CEI was at 103.5 in October.

An excerpt from the November 18 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The October rebound of the LEI — largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits — suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded. Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as did the continuing positive contributions from the interest rate spread. The CEI also rose somewhat, led by higher industrial production and employment.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1192.98 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators October 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 24, 2011:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the September 27 update titled “Index forecasts continued weak growth” :

The September update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 2% through February. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 10/14/11 the WLI was at 120.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.1%.

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 10-15-09 to 10-15-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the October 20 release, the LEI was at 116.4 and the CEI was at 103.3 in September.

An excerpt from the October 20 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to soft economic conditions through the end of 2011. There is a risk that already low confidence – consumer, business and investor – could weaken further, putting downward pressure on demand and tipping the economy into recession. The probability of a downturn starting over the next few months remains at about 50 percent.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1229.05 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators September 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The September Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 26, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the September 6 update titled “Index forecasts weak growth through year end” :

The August update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 2% through the second half of the year. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 9/16/11 the WLI was at 122.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at -6.7%.

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:

An excerpt from the August 31 Press Release, titled “Threat of a Recession Looms According to Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator” :

In August, federal spending issues and a ratings downgrade took its toll on economic sentiment, according to the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator. The indicator fell for the third straight month to 41.4 from 41.5 in July.

“The warning lights are flashing but the index is not quite calling recession, merely a very subdued state of sentiment about the economy,” says Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” columnist Alen Mattich.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 9-17-09 to 9-17-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the September 22 release, the LEI was at 116.2 and the CEI was at 103.3 in August.

An excerpt from the September 22 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The August increase in the U.S. LEI was driven by components measuring financial and monetary conditions which offset substantially weaker components measuring expectations. The growth trend in the LEI has moderated and positive and negative contributors to the index have been roughly balanced. The leading indicators point to rising risks and volatility, and increasing concerns about the health of the expansion.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1162.95 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators August 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 22, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the August 1 Press Release, titled “Index sees stronger growth in second half of 2011” :

The July update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowly gaining strength in the second half of the year. Lower oil prices, improved auto production and sales, increased business equipment spending, strong exports and recovery in the multi-family residential sector are expected to push growth above 3% in November and December. High unemployment and continued weakness in the single-family housing sector remain drags on growth.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 8/12/11 the WLI was at 123.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.1%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 1 was at 41.5, as seen below:

An excerpt from the August 1 Press Release, titled “Return to Recession is a Real Risk According to Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator” :

As Washington focuses on the debt ceiling, there are signs that the rest of the U.S. economy is running into trouble, according the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator. In July, the ESI dropped to 41.5 from a reading of 44 in June. The indicator has now fallen for two consecutive months for a cumulative decline of 5.1, the worst two-month drop since the fall of 2008.

“It would be easy to blame the dip in the ESI on the U.S. debt crisis, but much of the gloom stems from Main Street rather than Washington,” says Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” columnist Alen Mattich. “The readings this summer have fallen enough that it seems to suggest a slide back into recession is a real risk.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 8-13-09 to 8-13-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the August 18 release, the LEI was at 115.8 and the CEI was at 103.3 in July.

An excerpt from the August 18 Press Release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board:  “The U.S. LEI continued to increase in July. However, with the exception of the money supply and interest rate components, other leading indicators show greater weakness – consistent with increasing concerns about the health of the economic expansion. Despite rising volatility, the leading indicators still suggest economic activity should be slowly expanding through the end of the year.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1123.82 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators July 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 25, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the June 22 Press Release, titled “Index forecasts stronger growth this fall” :

The June update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 3% through the summer and then gaining strength in October and November with 3.3%-3.4% growth rates. Temporary automotive supply disruptions resulting from the Japan earthquake plus high energy and food prices are the main reasons for the slowdown. A return to stronger growth is expected in the fall as automotive supply levels return to normal, businesses increase equipment spending, export growth remains strong and employment slowly improves. The weak housing market and concerns about European debt remain drags on the recovery.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 7/15/11 the WLI was at 127.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 1.7%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of June 30 was at 44.0, as seen below:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 7-16-09 to 7-16-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the July 21 release, the LEI was at 115.3 and the CEI was at 102.9 in June.

An excerpt from the July 21 Press Release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board:

“The U.S. LEI continued to increase in June, but the strengths among the leading indicators have been balanced with the weaknesses in recent months. The Coincident Economic Index, a monthly measure of current economic activity, continued to increase slowly. The leading indicators point to slowly expanding economic activity in the coming months.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1336.70 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators June 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 23, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the June 22 Press Release, titled “Index forecasts stronger growth this fall” :

The June update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 3% through the summer and then gaining strength in October and November with 3.3%-3.4% growth rates. Temporary automotive supply disruptions resulting from the Japan earthquake plus high energy and food prices are the main reasons for the slowdown. A return to stronger growth is expected in the fall as automotive supply levels return to normal, businesses increase equipment spending, export growth remains strong and employment slowly improves. The weak housing market and concerns about European debt remain drags on the recovery.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 6/17/11 the WLI was at 127.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.9%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of May 31 was at 46.7, as seen below:

An excerpt from the May 31 Press release:

The depiction of the economy in U.S. newspapers continued to be more negative than positive in May, lengthening a long-term trend held since November 2007. In May, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator hit 46.6, unchanged since April and more than 3 points away from the positive side of the 100-point scale.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 6-18-09 to 6-18-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the June 17 release, the LEI was at 114.7 and the CEI was at 102.9 in May.

An excerpt from the June 17 Press Release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI rebounded in May and resumed its upward trend with a majority of the components supporting this gain. The Coincident Economic Index, a monthly measure of current economic conditions, continued to increase slowly but steadily. Overall, despite short-term volatility, the composite indexes still point to expanding economic activity in the coming months.”

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Modest economic growth is being buffeted by some strong headwinds, including high gas and food prices and a soft housing market. The economy will likely continue to grow through the summer and fall, however it will be choppy.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1268.45 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators May 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 23, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the March 23 Press Release, titled “Economic index forecasts stronger growth” :

“The March update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 3.7% to 3.8% during the summer months. Gains in manufacturing, capital spending and exports are fueling the growth. Consumer spending and employment are expected to continue improving, though at a moderate pace.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 5/13/11 the WLI was at 128.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at 5.3%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of May 2 was at 46.6, as seen below:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 5-14-09 to 5-14-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the May 19 release, the LEI was at 114.0 and the CEI was at 102.8 in April.

An excerpt from the May 19 Press Release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI has been rising since March 2009, with only a brief one-month interruption in June 2010, and now, in April 2011. The U.S. CEI, a monthly measure of current economic conditions, continued to increase, supported by improving employment figures. Overall, the composite indexes still point to strengthening business conditions in the near term, although the path may be uneven.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1316.28 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators April 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity:

The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of April 28, 2011:

CFNAI graph

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the March 23 Press Release, titled “Economic index forecasts stronger growth” :

“The March update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 3.7% to 3.8% during the summer months. Gains in manufacturing, capital spending and exports are fueling the growth. Consumer spending and employment are expected to continue improving, though at a moderate pace.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 4/15/11 the WLI was at 131.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.7%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of March 31 was at 43.2, as seen below:

An excerpt from the March 31 Press Release:

“Weighted down by concerns about future consumer spending, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped 3.3 points to 43.2 in March. This is indicator’s lowest point since September 2010 and its sharpest drop since the autumn of 2008 when the global financial markets were collapsing.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 4-23-09 to 4-23-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the April 21 release, the LEI was at 114.1 and the CEI was at 102.9 in March.

An excerpt from the April 21, 2011 Press Release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI continued to increase in March, pointing to strengthening business conditions in the near term. The March increase was led by the interest rate spread and housing permits components, while consumer expectations dropped. The U.S. CEI, a monthly measure of current economic conditions, also continued to rise, led by gains in industrial production and employment.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1360.36 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators March 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  (Past updates of these indicators, as well as previous posts discussing the individual indicators, can be found under “Economic Indicators“) :

The March Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 21, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the February 25 Press Release, titled “Economic index forecasts stronger growth” :

“The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 3.6% in March through June and then slowing slightly to 3.4% in July. Improved consumer and business confidence and the new tax legislation are expected to help fuel growth. But continued high unemployment, a still-weak housing sector and tight credit conditions will keep growth below 4% this year.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 3/11/11 the WLI was at 130.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.1%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of February 28 was at 46.5, as seen below:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 3-12-09 to 3-12-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the March 17 release, the LEI was at 113.4 and the CEI was at 102.5 in February.

An excerpt from the March 17, 2011 Press Release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “With February’s large gain, the U.S. LEI returned to the strengthening upward trend that began last September. The LEI is pointing to an economic expansion that should gain more momentum in the coming months. In February, improvements in labor markets, financial components, and consumer expectations more than offset falling housing permits.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1298.38 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators February 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  (Past updates of these indicators, as well as previous posts discussing the individual indicators, can be found under “Economic Indicators“) :

The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 24, 2011:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the January 24 Release, titled “Economic index forecasts stronger growth”  :

“The January update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, gaining momentum this year. The index forecasts a growth rate of 3.7% in March and April, up from 2.1% in September. Improved consumer and business confidence and the new tax legislation are expected to help fuel growth. But continued high unemployment, a still-weak housing sector and tight credit conditions will keep growth below 4% this year.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 2/11/11 the WLI was at 129.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.9%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 31 was at 46.9, as seen below:

An excerpt from the January 31 Press Release:

“With a gain of just under one point in January, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator signaled that the U.S. economy is slowly pulling itself out of the recession. The ESI edged up from 46.1 in December to 46.9 in January, consolidating a positive 2.2 point gain in December.

“Fears of a double dip recession have fallen off the radar, but reporting about the economy is still short of the optimism we ought to be seeing at this stage, were this a normal expansion. This muted sentiment mirrors the lackluster trend in employment growth,” said Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” columnist Alen Mattich.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 2-19-09 to 2-19-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the February 17 release, the LEI was at 112.3 and the CEI was at 102.1 in January.

An excerpt from the February 17, 2011 Press Release:

“Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board:  “The economy gained some momentum in late fall, and the latest data suggest that trend will continue.  The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the last six months is a sharp 3.0 percent, signaling continued expansion.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1306.10 as this post is written