Posts Tagged ‘Unemployment’

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – January 2011

Monday, January 10th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated  unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 1-7-11)

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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

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Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1271.50 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – December 2010

Sunday, December 5th, 2010

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated  employment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated through 12-3-10)

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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

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Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1224.71 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – November 2010

Monday, November 8th, 2010

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated  employment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated through 11-5-10)

-

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

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Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1222.70 as this post is written

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Employment-Population Ratio – Chart And Comments

Wednesday, August 11th, 2010

Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal had an Op-ed titled “Unemployment: What Would Reagan Do?”

I found the article interesting as it provides a good explanation of the Civilian Employment-Population Ratio and its history.  An excerpt:

“Since America has about 238 million noninstitutionalized civilian adults of working age, this decrease means that we have nearly 12 million fewer jobs today than we would have if the employment-population rate were still at its 2007 level of 63%.

No other recession in the past 60 years saw such rapid job destruction in either absolute or percentage terms. In the 1979-82 recession, unemployment topped out at a higher rate, 10.8%, but the employment-population ratio declined by only three percentage points, to 57% from 60%.”

Below is the long-term chart of this ratio, as found on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Although this Civilian Employment-Population Ratio is not a statistic that gets a lot of mention, it is nonetheless an important statistic and concept.

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – August 2010

Monday, August 9th, 2010

As I have commented previously, as in the October 30 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated  employment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

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SPX at 1121.64 as this post is written

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“Chronic Joblessness”

Friday, June 4th, 2010

The Wall Street Journal of June 2 had an article titled “Chronic Joblessness Takes Toll.”

I have written extensively about the unemployment  situation for a number of reasons.  Perhaps chief among these reasons is that I believe the situation is far worse than generally acknowledged.

While it is easy to dismiss the unemployment problem with glib statements or convoluted reasoning, I believe the issue is very complex and threatening.  As seen in the aforementioned Wall Street Journal article, as well as various charts shown on this blog, there is little doubt that from a long-term historical perspective our unemployment problems are outsized.  Additionally, there are many facets of our unemployment situation that go unrecognized yet are exceedingly important.

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Last year I wrote a series of blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?” which contains many of my thoughts on the issue.

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Four Erroneous Phrases

Friday, May 21st, 2010

Over the last few months, four phrases have been used frequently in describing our economic condition.  I find these phrases to be inaccurate and misleading.

Here are the four phrases (in italics) and some brief commentary:

“the Great Recession”

Many people have labeled the economic weakness (ended by the subsequent purported economic recovery) as “the Great Recession.”  This appears to be in recognition of a deep recession that in many ways seemed to be second only to The Great Depression as far as severity.

I believe the phrase to be inaccurate as my analysis indicates we have yet to experience the full extent of the economic weakness -  and as such categorizing weakness to date is premature.  Also, I find the term “Great Recession” to be rather glib and flippant, as it minimizes the extent of our economic difficulties.

“employment is a lagging indicator”

This phrase is heard constantly.  It seems as if the more it is said, the more accepted it becomes.  I believe that although employment may have been a “lagging indicator” in the past, during our current period of economic weakness it is either a coincident or leading indicator, depending upon the time horizon and other guidelines used.

“saddling our children / grandchildren with debt”

This phrase, and variants, is often heard in relation to the expansion of deficits and national debt.  While I don’t believe it is wholly inaccurate, I think it embodies various mistaken beliefs.  Among these mistaken beliefs are that we as a country will not face near-term repercussions from our amassing of debts; and that the worst consequence (and only one worthy of mention) of our current economic actions with regard to future generations’ prosperity is our amassing of debt.

The broader, and more important question -  which is seemingly never mentioned – is whether we are acting as “good stewards” in relation to the economic condition that will be faced by future generations.  In essence, is the current generation promoting an economic environment that will bode well for future generations?  I will likely discuss this topic in the future.

the “Flash Crash”

This phrase has been frequently used to describe the sudden, deep decline of the stock market on May 6.  I don’t think the phrase is accurate for a number of reasons.  Again, the phrase sounds glib and implies that the decline lacked (lasting) significance or happened without significant reason or provocation.

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There are many other erroneous phrases used frequently to discuss our economic condition.  In the future I will highlight others that I believe have outsized significance.

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The Loss Of Manufacturing In The United States

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

The following excerpt is from the Global Economics section of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, May 10-May 16 2010:

“Industrial America’s plight can be encapsulated in a few incredible numbers.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. employment in manufacturing over the past six months has been the lowest since March 1941, before the U.S. entered World War II.  The March total was a little under 11.6 million workers, down 19 percent in just the past five years.  Productivity advances account for some job reductions, but that’s not the whole story:  Manufacturing’s share of GDP shrank from 25 percent in the 1960s to 15 percent in 2000 and just 11 percent in 2008, according to data from the Commerce Dept.’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

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I believe that our loss of manufacturing, and manufacturing jobs, represents one of the largest errors in our economic strategy.

Perhaps most disconcerting has been our national attitude toward the loss of this manufacturing.  It perhaps can best be summarized in the commonly heard phrase “we don’t need manufacturing in order to be successful.”

While the underlying reasons for this manufacturing loss are complex, and some would argue unavoidable, it nonetheless has created many substantial, enduring problems.

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Three Unemployment Charts

Sunday, April 18th, 2010

This post provides updated charts to the “Three Unemployment Charts” post of January 12.

As I have commented previously, most notably in an October 6 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction.  However, I believe that the following charts provide an interesting perspective of the officially-stated  employment situation from a long-term historical perspective.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

Back in July 2009 I wrote a series of blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”

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SPX at 1192.13 as this post is written

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Comments On The HIRE Act

Sunday, March 21st, 2010

On Thursday President Obama signed the HIRE Act, a jobs stimulus.  The summary of the signing can be found here.

There is also a transcript of his remarks found here.

I could make many comments about this jobs stimulus.  However, as an intervention measure, it has many of the same characteristics of other interventions.  As such, my previous extensive comments about interventions are highly relevant.  Those posts can be found listed under the “Intervention” Category.

However, I will make two comments specific to this legislation:

First, the ARRA was supposed to be a “jobs creation” legislation.  On various levels it has not performed as intended with regard to job creation.  As I’ve pointed out before, we should be very cognizant of how previous stimulus bills have fared before enacting new ones.

Second, in President Obama’s comments he said, “I’m signing it mindful that, as I’ve said before, the solution to our economic problems will not come from government alone.  Government can’t create all the jobs we need or can it repair all the damage that’s been done by this recession.”  This entire idea of “creating” jobs or “stimulating” job creation needs to be intensely scrutinized.  Should government be attempting to “create” jobs – as seems to be the current widely accepted theory – or should job creation and job growth be an inherent feature of a strong economy?

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Here is a link to a blog series I have previously written titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?” :

http://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/07/24/why-arent-companies-hiring/

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