Tag Archives: S&P500

The S&P500 Vs. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index – July 28, 2014

Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets.

The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, since 2006:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

SPX vs. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

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It is notable that the Shanghai Composite led the SPX (S&P500) significantly in late ’08 – early ’09, yet it has been (generally) declining since that time.

I continue to find this divergence between the S&P500 and Shanghai Composite to be notable and disconcerting, on an “all things considered” basis.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1980.25 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of July 18, 2014:

from page 19:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks) 

S&P500 EPS trends

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from page 20:

Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates

S&P500 annual earnings 2000-2015

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1989.68 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2014 Through 2017

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of July 23, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:

Year 2014 estimate:

$119.34/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$133.66/share

Year 2016 estimate:

$148.27/share

Year 2017 estimate:

$138.00/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1989.28 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of July 17, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of July 17, 2014:

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $120.07/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $109.67/share

Year 2015 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $136.01/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $136.03/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $131.80/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1983.53 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – July 14, 2014 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 and prominent stocks

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This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 1980

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1967.57 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – July 8, 2014 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 38th update to that post.

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this blog of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses indicate that the danger inherent in the financial system has surpassed the level at which a near-term outsized stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – is of tremendous concern.

(note: the “next crash” has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (with a last price of 1977.65), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 2008

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1949.44 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of June 20, 2014:

from page 18:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks) 

S&P500 earnings estimate trends

-

from page 19:

Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates

S&P500 annual earnings

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1949.98 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2014 Through 2017

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of June 24, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:

Year 2014 estimate:

$119.69/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$133.22/share

Year 2016 estimate:

$147.18/share

Year 2017 estimate:

$138.00/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1949.98 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of June 19, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 19, 2014:

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $119.61/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $120.89/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $114.47/share

Year 2015 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $137.19/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $148.18/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $144.60/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1949.88 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – June 9, 2014 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 37th update to that post.

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this blog of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses indicate that the danger inherent in the financial system has surpassed the level at which a near-term outsized stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – is of tremendous concern.

(note: the “next crash” has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (with a last price of 1949.44), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1949.44 as this post is written