Tag Archives: S&P500

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of December 12, 2014:

from page 19:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings estimates 2014 & 2015

from page 20:

trends of S&P500 annual earnings

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2038.78 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings Estimates – Years 2014 Through 2016

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of December 18, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:

Year 2014 estimate:

$117.22/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$127.43/share

Year 2016 estimate:

$142.57/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2037.01 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of December 11, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 11, 2014:

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $116.94/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $109.50/share

Year 2015 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $132.55/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $135.84/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $134.90/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2012.89 as this post is written

S&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2014

The December 2014 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 12, 2014 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown:

Dec. 31, 2014   2065

June 30, 2015   2125

Dec. 31, 2015   2160.60

June 30, 2016   2300

These figures represent the median value across the 29 forecasters on the survey’s panel.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1998.37 as this post is written

2015 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 15, 2014 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Outlook 2015:  Stick With the Bull.”

Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2015 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.

A couple of excerpts:

The strategists’ 2015 targets for the S&P 500 range from a low of 2100 to a high of 2350, with a mean of 2208, compared with Friday’s close of 2002. Subramanian’s 2015 target is 2200.

also:

BARRON’S SURVEYS a group of prominent market strategists every September and December, to gauge the outlook for stocks, bonds, and the economy in the final months of the current year and in the year ahead. Looking to 2015, the strategists see S&P 500 earnings per share rising a mean 7.5%, to $127, from an expected $118 this year. Most believe that higher earnings will be the market’s chief propellant in the new year.

Industry analysts tend toward more upbeat forecasts than the big-picture thinkers, although the current read on 2015 suggests there isn’t much of a gap.  The analysts have penciled in earnings estimates of $128.80, according to Yardeni Research.

The article also mentions that among the investment strategists, average expected 2014 GDP growth is 3.0%.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1993.56 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – December 9, 2014 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

prominent stocks vs. the S&P500

This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 monthly since 1980

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2060.31 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – December 8, 2014 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 43nd update to that post.

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this blog of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses indicate that the danger inherent in the financial system has surpassed the level at which a near-term outsized (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – is of tremendous concern.

(note: the “next crash” has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (with a last price of 2075.37), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 2008

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2075.37 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of November 14, 2014:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings forecasts 2014 & 2015

from page 24:

S&P500 annual EPS

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2069.13 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings Estimates – Years 2014 Through 2016

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of November 20, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:

Year 2014 estimate:

$117.96/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$129.91/share

Year 2016 estimate:

$145.12/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2050.13 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of November 13, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 13, 2014:

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $117.51/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $109.96/share

Year 2015 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $133.89/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $135.84/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $134.90/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2048.72 as this post is written