EconomicGreenfield

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $98.06/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $94.89/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $95.69/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.79/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $101.21/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $100.97/share

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1331.10 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found on September 17,  May 30, and December 30)

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $96.21/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $93.63/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $96.26/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of (N.A.)

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $98.30/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $97.12/share

As seen in previous posts, there seemed to be an earlier overall consensus that 2011 S&P500 operating earnings will be in the $90-$95/share range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1281.87 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at the September 17 and May 30 posts)

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.79/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $88.46/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $86.84/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of (N.A.)

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $93.32/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $90.01/share

As seen in previous posts, there seems to be an overall consensus that 2011 S&P500 operating earnings will be in the $90-$95/share range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1259.78 as this post is written

Today’s Barron’s has a cover story titled “Outlook 2011.”

Among the average forecasts of the 10 respondents (strategists and investment managers) was the following:

• A year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1373.25

• $92.90 S&P500 EPS for 2011

• $100.83  S&P500 EPS for 2012 (an average from 6 respondents)

• 3.2% GDP growth for 2011

In a separate story from Bloomberg of December 13 titled “No New Normal as Strategists Predict 11% S&P500 Gain” the average figures from 11 respondents are similar; a year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1379 and an EPS of $92/share.

Both the Bloomberg and (especially the) Barron’s stories have a variety of economic and market commentary accompanying the forecasts.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1243.91 as this post is written

Barron’s came out with its “Fall 2010 Big Money Poll” on November 1.

There are a variety of statistics and poll results in it that I found interesting.

Of special note is the S&P500 2011 profit consensus of respondents, at $91.11.

There seems to be a growing overall consensus that S&P500 Operating Earnings will be in the $90-$95/share range.  This has been seen in numerous sources, some of which have been featured in past blog posts.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1197.96 as this post is written

In the October 11-October 17 2010 issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, it had an article titled “The Corporate Profit Engine May Be Slowing.”

The article contains a variety of information concerning earnings.  An excerpt:

“For the first time in more than a year, Wall Street analysts cut their forecasts for Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index earnings during the course of a quarter, casting a shadow over the stock market outlook. Analysts reduced their estimates for S&P 500 companies’ combined 2011 profit to $95.21 a share as of Sept. 30, down from an August high of $96.16 and $95.50 on June 30, according to more than 8,500 forecasts tracked by Bloomberg. The last time analysts’ earnings estimates fell during a quarter was in the three months ended June 2009. The figure has since rebounded to $95.97 a share.

Even the lower level would represent a rise of 14 percent from 2010 and a record for U.S. corporate profits.”

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1155.71 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis.  My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at this May 30 post)

Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $82.87/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $78.29/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $71.03/share

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.12/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $86.23/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $84.90/share

As I commented in the December 20, 2009 post, coming into 2010 the overall consensus on S&P500 earnings for the year seemed to be in the $75 range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1125.69 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis.

Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.88/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $78.40/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $80.92/share

As I commented in the December 20, 2009 post, coming into 2010 the overall consensus on S&P500 earnings for the year seemed to be in the $75 range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with the many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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SPX at 1089.41 as this post is written