EconomicGreenfield

The October NFIB Small Business Optimism was released November 8.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Has Minor Uptick: Optimism Index Slight Uptick Still Weighed Down by Dominant Negative Forecast.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 1.3 points in October, rising to 90.2.

Here are some excerpts from the report that I find particularly notable:

“Consumer sentiment remains at very low levels and is reflected in the 26 percent of small business owners who cite ‘poor sales’ as their biggest problem,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “There is no exuberance in spending, as consumers ‘make do’ rather than spend their increased savings in upgrades or new purchases. It’s that extra spending that would provide small business owners a reason to hire and order more inventory, the best stimulus we could have. But confidence is the key and right now there isn’t much.”

also:

October’s survey shows that optimism improved a smidge, but mostly because the outlook for business conditions and real sales growth became less negative. However, these two Index components are still solidly negative and at recession levels.

also:

Four percent of owners reported financing as their most important business problem. So, for the overwhelming majority, credit availability is not a significant problem. Ninety-one percent reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing. Nine percent reported that not all of their credit needs were satisfied, the record low is 4 percent reached in 2000.

In conjunction with this October NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, the CalculatedRisk blog on November 8 (in a post titled “NFIB:  Small Business Optimism Index increases slightly in October“) had three charts that depicted various facets (the Index itself; Hiring Plans and Poor Sales) of the Survey, as shown below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1243.70 as this post is written

The June NFIB Small Business Optimism was released July 12.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Stagnates: Main Street Desperately in Search of Reasons to be Positive.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism declined .1 points in June, falling to 90.8.

Here are some excerpts from the report that I find particularly notable:

Earnings trends for small businesses remained distressingly negative in June, particularly given that the recovery is now beginning its third year. According to today’s report, 69 percent of the owners view the current period as a poor time to expand and 75 percent of those blame the weak economy for their outlook, while 10  percent cite political uncertainty.

also:

The sales outlook for small firms continues to look grim as expectations have declined for 4 months in a row and “poor sales” continues to be the #1 problem for owners in operating their business.    The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales fell 3 points to a net 0 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted), 13 points below January’s reading. The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past 3 months improved 2 percentage points, rising to a net negative 7 percent, more firms with sales trending down than up.

also:

Access to credit remains a limited problem as it continues to affect a small percentage of owners.  Three percent of owners reported financing as their #1 business problem and 91 percent reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing.

In conjunction with this June NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, the CalculatedRisk blog on July 12 (in a post titled “NFIB:  Small Business Optimism Index ‘basically unchanged’ in June“)  had three charts that depicted various facets (the Index itself; Hiring Plans and Poor Sales) of the Survey, as shown below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1316.14 as this post is written

The March NFIB Small Business Optimism was released April 12.  The headline of the Press Release is “Hiring Up, But Optimism Down in March.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism declined 2.6 points in March, falling to 91.9.

Here are some excerpts from the report that I find particularly notable:

“The index is consistent with recession-level readings. The decline comes after several consecutive months of a slow but steady growth.”

also:

“Uncertainty continues to cloud the future while the government is persistently tone-deaf to the needs of those who create jobs and wealth. Today’s recession-level reading is, all in all, a real disappointment.”

also:

“Continuing the credit trend that NFIB has observed for months, the vast majority of small businesses (93 percent) reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing. The historically high percent of owners who cite weak sales means that for many owners, investments in new equipment or new workers are not likely to “pay back”. Lack of demand—and not the availability of credit—appears to be the stalemate that is holding back loan growth.”

also:

“The “fire sale” is over and profits are badly in need of some price support. Note that these hikes started before higher gas and energy prices became a real issue except for transportation firms and those with delivery services. Plans to raise prices rose 3 points to a net seasonally adjusted 24 percent of owners, the highest reading in 30 months. With an improving economy, more and more of these hikes will “stick”.”

In conjunction with this March NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, the CalculatedRisk blog on April 12 had three charts that depicted various facets (the Index itself; Hiring Plans and Poor Sales) of the Survey, as shown below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

-

_____

My previous posts concerning the business environment and challenges for small businesses were on January 12, and in 2010 October 18, and April 15.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1315.21 as this post is written

The December NFIB Small Business Optimism was released January 11.  The headline of the Press Release is “NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Remains Weak.”

The Press Release contains a variety of statistics.  One excerpt from the Press Release that I found especially notable was:

“Weak sales remains the top problem, stagnating hiring and spending on capital projects.  All of which are sidelining the small business sector from a recovery.  This marks the 36th month of Index readings in the recession level.”

In conjunction with this December NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, the CalculatedRisk blog on January 11 had three charts that depicted various facets (the Index itself; Hiring Plans and Poor Sales) of the Survey, as shown below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

-

_____

My previous posts concerning the environment and challenges for small businesses was on October 18 and April 15.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1274.48 as this post is written

The September NFIB Small Business Optimism was released on October 12.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Index Remains at Recessionary Level.”

Here are some especially notable excerpts from the Press Release:

“The Index has been below 93 every month since January 2008 (32 months), and below 90 for 26 of those months, all readings typical of a weak or recession-mired economy.

“The downturn may be officially over, but small business owners have for the most part seen no evidence of it,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.”

also:

“September is the 22nd consecutive month in which more owners reported cutting average selling prices that raising them.  Widespread price cutting contributes to the high percentage reporting declining sales revenues.”

also:

“A near record low 33 percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis.  Reported and planned capital spending are at 35-year record low levels, so fewer loans are needed.  The net percent of owners expecting credit conditions to ease in the coming months was a seasonally adjusted negative 14 percent (more owners expect that it will be harder to arrange financing), unchanged from August.  The Fed is holding rates at historically low levels, but this is not improving the outlook for the ease of financing expansion.”

In conjunction with this September NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, the CalculatedRisk blog of October 12 had three charts that depicted various facets (the Index itself; hiring plans and Poor Sales) of the Survey, as shown below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

_____

My previous post concerning the environment and challenges for small businesses was on April 15.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1176.19 as this post is written