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	<title>EconomicGreenfield &#187; output</title>
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	<description>America&#039;s Economic Future - A Discussion By Ted Kavadas</description>
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		<title>Historical Perspective &#8211; Employment And Output</title>
		<link>http://www.economicgreenfield.com/2010/02/08/historical-perspective-employment-and-output/</link>
		<comments>http://www.economicgreenfield.com/2010/02/08/historical-perspective-employment-and-output/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 14:56:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ted Kavadas</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Unemployment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[output]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Here are two charts from the Minneapolis Fed site: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm They show, from a historical context, how declines in employment and output during this period of economic weakness (which FRB Minneapolis refers to as a recession) compare to those of previous recessions. First, the employment chart.  Here are two notes regarding this chart: 1. Employment [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are two charts from the Minneapolis Fed site:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm">http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm</a></p>
<p>They show, from a historical context, how declines in employment and output during this period of economic weakness (which FRB Minneapolis refers to as a recession) compare to those of previous recessions.</p>
<p>First, the employment chart.  Here are two notes regarding this chart:</p>
<p>1.	Employment is nonfarm payroll employment calculated by the Bureau of  Labor Statistics.<br />
2.	Postwar recessions include the 10 recessions as  defined by the NBER that started between 1946 and 2006.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.economicgreenfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/frb-Minneapolis-employment-2-8-10-large1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1227" title="frb Minneapolis employment 2-8-10 large" src="http://www.economicgreenfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/frb-Minneapolis-employment-2-8-10-large1.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="604" /></a></p>
<p>Second, the output chart.  A couple of notes regarding this chart:</p>
<p>1.	Output is gross domestic product adjusted for inflation as calculated  by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.<br />
2.	Postwar recessions include the 10 recessions as defined by  the NBER that started between 1946 and 2006.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.economicgreenfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/frb-Minneapolis-output-2-8-10-large.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1228" title="frb Minneapolis output 2-8-10 large" src="http://www.economicgreenfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/frb-Minneapolis-output-2-8-10-large.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="602" /></a></p>
<p>There are other pertinent notes on the FRB Minneapolis page, as seen below:</p>
<h2>Background on Recession/Recovery in Perspective</h2>
<p>This page places the current economic downturn and recovery into  historical (post-WWII) perspective. It compares output and employment  changes from the 2007-2009 recession and subsequent recovery with the  same data for the 10 previous recessions and recoveries that have  occurred since 1946.</p>
<p>This page provides a current assessment of &#8216;how bad&#8217; the 2007-2009  recession was relative to past recessions, and of how quickly the  economy is recovering relative to past recoveries. It will continue to  be updated as new data are released. This page does not provide  forecasts, and the information should not be interpreted as such.</p>
<p>The  charts provide information about  the length and depth of  recessions, and the robustness of recoveries.</p>
<h2>Post-WWII Recessions</h2>
<p>The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the  National Bureau of Economic Research determines the beginning and ending  dates of U.S. recessions. <a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles.html">http://www.nber.org/cycles.html</a><br />
It has determined that the U.S. economy experienced 10  recessions from 1946 through 2006. The committee determined that the  2007-2009 recession began in December 2007. The ending date  has not yet  been determined. Ending dates are typically announced several months  after the recession officially ends.<br />
<a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html">http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html</a></p>
<h2>Length of Recessions</h2>
<p>The 10 previous postwar recessions  ranged in length from 6 months to 16 months, averaging about 10 1/2  months. The 2007-09 recession  was almost certainly  the longest  recession in the postwar period.  But the total length of the recession  will only be known when the Business Cycle Dating Committee  retrospectively determines the final month of the recession.</p>
<h2>Depth of Recessions</h2>
<p>The severity of a recession is determined in  part by its length; perhaps even more important is the magnitude of the  decline in economic activity. That is, how much do employment and output  fall?</p>
<p>back to <a href="http://www.economicgreenfield.com/">&lt;home&gt;</a></p>
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