Posts Tagged ‘job losses’

A Note About Unemployment Statistics

Tuesday, October 6th, 2009

From time to time, I will write posts that contain the Unemployment Rate or various other job loss measures.  I show these statistics as they are widely used and quoted by others. 

From my perspective, however, the methodology used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics does not provide an accurate depiction.  There are a variety of reasons for this that become evident if one carefully analyzes the unemployment calculations.

I feel that if one were to accurately gauge the Unemployment Rate, the rate would be at least 20%, which is roughly double the official Unemployment Rate of 9.8%.  This 20% figure is above the U6 measure of 17% that many have adopted as an accurate benchmark. 

What is bothersome is that even the official unemployment statistics that I show in the blog posts display a very worrisome situation.

 

SPX at 1054.65 as this post is written

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Another Chart Reflecting Job Losses

Monday, October 5th, 2009

I would like to present an interesting chart on job losses.  My last chart concerning job losses was posted on September 10.  The commentary I presented there is still highly applicable to the latest unemployment numbers.

This chart is from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ from October 2.  I like this chart as it presents a depiction of the relative severity of our current period of economic weakness vs. that of prior periods from both a “duration” and “extent” perspective:

CR EmploymentJobLossesRecessions 10-2-09

 

There should be no doubt that this unemployment situation is severe, especially in light of the fact that other employment/income options like starting one’s own business in this economic climate would be (very) difficult.

For those who haven’t yet read it, I wrote a blog series titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?” that can be found on the “Blog Series” page listed on the right-hand side of the home page as well as at this link:

http://www.economicgreenfield.com/blog-series/

 

SPX at 1031.47 as this post is written

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An Interesting Chart On Job Losses, Revisited

Thursday, September 10th, 2009

Here is an updated chart from chartoftheday.com that I have shown and discussed previously, in my July 7 post:

Chart of the Day Nonfarm Payrolls 9-4-09

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090904.htm?T

There are other charts similar to this, from other sources…however, I find this chart particularly interesting as it incorporates the long-term averages of two other periods. 

As I wrote in my July 7 post:

“As one can see, the current degree of job losses is rather atypical.

I would also like to highlight another issue as well. From a historical perspective, this (purported) recession, that the NBER has classified as having started in December 2007, is getting “long in the tooth” from a historical perspective. The following blog post does a good job of summarizing how long recessions typically last:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/update-what-is-depression.html

As one can see, from a historical standpoint the severity of the job losses, as well as the length of this (purported) recession are atypical. Both have persevered in the face of very large amounts of intervention, including stimulus efforts.

As I have written about previously, the above is yet more evidence that we may well be in a “new (economic) environment” – with the associated implications…”

SPX at 1031.85 as this post is written

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An Interesting Chart on Job Losses

Tuesday, July 7th, 2009

I ran across the following chart from chartoftheday.com, and found it interesting:

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090703.htm?T

As one can see, the current degree of job losses is rather atypical.

I would also like to highlight another issue as well.  From a historical perspective, this (purported) recession, that the NBER has classified as having started in December 2007, is getting “long in the tooth” from a historical perspective.  The following blog post does a good job of summarizing how long recessions typically last:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/update-what-is-depression.html

As one can see, from a historical standpoint the severity of the job losses, as well as the length of this (purported) recession are atypical.  Both have persevered in the face of very large amounts of intervention, including stimulus efforts.   

As I have written about previously, the above is yet more evidence that we may well be in a “new (economic) environment” – with the associated implications…   

SPX at 883.05 as this post is written

 

Copyright 2009 by Ted Kavadas

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