Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

Rising Costs And Inflation

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

“And long before this recession hit — for a decade — middle-class families had already been expensing — experiencing a sense of declining economic security.  Their paychecks were flat-lining even though the cost of everything from groceries to college educations to health care were all going up.”

President Obama, during an April 2, 2010 speech

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Although the CPI and various other cost and inflation indices have been relatively subdued for many years, it is inarguable that many costs routinely experienced by the average American have dramatically increased.  Perhaps the main resultant effect of these cost increases are for the average citizen to (continually) experience a declining standard of living.

Over the last few months, many costs have been rising sharply.  These cost increases are most pronounced among many commodities, as discussed in this April 23 Wall Street Journal article “High Cost of Raw Materials.”

These pervasive cost increases are also impacting many businesses in pronounced ways.  I will be discussing this in a subsequent post as these impacts are little understood, yet will likely have large future effects.

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SPX at 1162.89 as this post is written

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Gold And Implications

Friday, September 4th, 2009

The strong price action of gold lately has been interesting.

As seen in the two-year daily price chart below, the $1000 level has been a pivotal area:

Gold Daily 2-Year Chart

Gold Daily 2-Year Chart

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

For a variety of reasons I am closely watching whether this $1000 price level will be surpassed.  I am under the impression, due to a variety of factors, that either gold will soon strongly surpass this $1000 level, or fail to and begin a strong descent.  In essence, I think we have approached the “moment of truth” for gold, and it will “break” from this $1000 level decisively either up or down.

As many know, gold has a long-standing reputation as performing strongly during what is perceived to be inflationary conditions.   As such, how it performs here in the short-term could prove instructive on this topic, which would impact many other markets.

The hyperinflation / inflation / deflation debate is of foremost importance at this time for many reasons.  How this debate is “answered” will have vast implications for investors, business, and the nation’s financial standing.

SPX at 1003.24 as this post is written

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P/E Ratios and Inflation / Deflation

Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009

I recently came across an interesting chart titled “Relationship Of Inflation and Price/Earnings Ratios (1900-2008).”  It is from Crestmont Research and can be found at this link:

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%20Inflation%20&%20PE.pdf

It shows the effect of inflation and deflation (as defined by the CPI) on the P/E Ratio. I think that it is worth looking at for a variety of reasons. 

One of the reasons I point it out is that it provides some historical background to the Inflation/Stock Valuation topic I discussed in the article “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?”  (which can be found in the ProsperityByPen.com Directory listed under “Pages” on the right-hand side of the page)

The “inflation is good for stocks” theory is widely held.  The logic says that inflation promotes higher revenue and earnings.  In my opinion this logic is theoretically flawed and/or incomplete.   From a practical perspective, history shows it isn’t justified, as indicated in the chart. 

Furthermore, even if inflation were to appear favorable to stock prices, one has to view the stock market returns on a “real” basis.

SPX at 995.81 as this post is written

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