EconomicGreenfield

The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 13, 2012.  The headline is “Economists Split Over Additional Fed Action.”

The commentary largely focuses on when, and if, the Federal Reserve will do another round of “bond purchases.”

An excerpt from the article:

Of the 22 economists who expect more bond buying from the central bank, 19 forecast that it would take place before June. On average, they expect a new program would total less than $500 billion, making it the smallest one yet. The first round of bond buying, initiated by the Fed in 2008 and ended in 2010, totaled $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, $300 billion in Treasury bonds and $175 billion in federal agency debt. The second round ended in June 2011 and consisted of $600 billion in purchases of U.S. Treasurys.

Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the economists put the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 19%.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.7%

full-year 2012:  2.4%

full-year 2013:  2.8%

full-year 2014:  3.1%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2012: 8.2%

December 2013: 7.7%

December 2014: 7.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2012: 2.56%

December 2013: 3.21%

December 2014:  3.82%

CPI:

December 2012:  2.2%

December 2013:  2.4%

December 2014:  2.6%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2012: $99.41

(note: I comment upon this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1293.67 as this post is written

The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 9, 2011.  The headline is “Inflation Seen Outpacing Home Prices.”

The commentary largely focuses on the housing market and when the economists polled believed it might recover.

I found these excerpts regarding the housing market to be interesting, although I don’t agree with them:

The economists’ predictions reflect a market that is at or near a bottom and showing signs of stabilization. New construction in 2011 is forecast to be mostly steady with a year earlier at around 600,000 homes and climbing to around 720,000 in 2012. But recovery may still be some time away due to several factors.

also:

Goldman Sachs economists Hui Shan and Sven Jari Stehn last week said their model for home prices indicates a bottom some time in 2012. They note that affordability has improved in recent years, helping the market to stabilize but other factors are preventing the sector from taking off.

Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), the economists put the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 23%.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.7%

full-year 2012:  2.3%

full-year 2013:  2.7%

full-year 2014:  3.1%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 8.8%

December 2012: 8.5%

December 2013: 8.0%

December 2014: 7.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.08%

December 2012: 2.75%

December 2013: 3.35%

December 2014:  3.97%

CPI:

December 2011:  3.3%

December 2012:  2.2%

December 2013:  2.4%

December 2014:  2.5%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $97.47

for 12/31/2012: $98.26

(note: I comment upon this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1241.30 as this post is written

The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 10, 2011.  The headline is “Economists See Smaller Chance of U.S. Recession.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

The 52 economists surveyed in November—not all of whom answer every question—put 1-in-4 odds that the U.S. will experience a recession in the next 12 months, down from a 1-in-3 chance they were seeing just two months ago, when concerns were at their highest level since the recent recession ended in June 2009.

also:

The economists, on average, put 2-in-3 odds that the euro zone will fall into recession.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.7%

full-year 2012:  2.3%

full-year 2013:  2.6%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 9.0%

December 2012: 8.7%

December 2013: 8.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.17%

December 2012: 2.79%

December 2013: 3.36%

CPI:

December 2011:  3.3%

December 2012:  2.2%

December 2013:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $88.68

for 12/31/2012: $91.60

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1192.98 as this post is written

The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 14.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.8%

full-year 2012 : 2.4%

full-year 2013 : 2.7%

full-year 2014 : 3.5%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2011: 9.0%

for 2012: 8.8%

for 2013: 8.4%

for 2014: 7.8%

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As for “the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters,” estimates range from 11.8-17.3% for each of the quarters through Q4 2012.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present through the year 2020) with the expected inflation of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.4-3.6% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1257.81 as this post is written

Yesterday saw the release of the Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, November 2011 (pdf).

Of note, since January, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its economic growth forecasts.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1236.49 as this post is written

The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published today, October 13, 2011.  The headline is “U.S. Incomes Seen Stagnant Through 2021 .”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

Americans’ incomes have dropped since 2000 and they aren’t expected to make up the lost ground before 2021, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.

From 2000 to 2010, median income in the U.S. declined 7% after adjusting for inflation, according to Census data. That marks the worst 10-year performance in records going back to 1967. On average, the economists expect inflation-adjusted incomes to rise over the next decade, but the 5% projected gain isn’t enough to reach prerecession levels.

also:

The economists, on average, put nearly 1-in-3 odds of another downturn hitting the U.S. economy in the next 12 months.

In the detail (spreadsheet), there are a variety of notable questions and responses.  Here are a couple regarding Recession Risk and Standard of Living :

Recession Risk

Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months.

Average 31%

Selection of comments:

-We’re skating on very thin ice!

-We have very little control over our own economy.

-There is too much money around for a recession.

Standard of Living

Will the current generation of college graduates have a higher standard of living than their parents?

Yes 70%

No  30%

Selection of comments:

-Yes it is a challenging environment today but this too will pass.

-Depends on how defined but basically no.

-Anti-business political environment will pass, American dream is intact.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.5%

full-year 2012:  2.3%

full-year 2013:  2.7%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 9.1%

December 2012: 8.7%

December 2013: 8.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.15%

December 2012: 2.9%

CPI:

December 2011:  3.1%

December 2012:  2.2%

December 2013:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $86.47

for 12/31/2012: $91.08

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1203.66 as this post is written

The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published today, September 16, 2011.  The headline is “Economists Say That U.S. Recession Looks More Likely.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

Economists see a one in three chance the U.S. will slip into recession over the next twelve months and doubt any steps the Federal Reserve might take at its meeting next week can change that.

also:

The majority of economists said all three steps—launching Operation Twist, altering interest on reserves or setting more explicit targets—would have little to no effect. Twenty-two of the 50 economists who responded to the question said more asset purchases would have somewhat or a significant impact on the economy, but 19 said the effect would be small and nine said it would be negative.

Also, a question in the detail (spreadsheet) asked “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability that the U.S. is in a recession already.”  The average response was 15%.

Another question in the detail asked for the economists to grade President Obama’s jobs proposal on a scale of 0-100.  The responses were the following:

A (90-100)         10%

B (80-89)             8%

C (70-79)            13%

D (60-69)             18%

F (Below 60)        51%

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.5%

full-year 2012:  2.4%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 9.1%

December 2012: 8.6%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.37%

December 2012: 3.17%

CPI:

December 2011:  3.1%

December 2012:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $88.95

for 12/31/2012: $92.82

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1213.89 as this post is written