EconomicGreenfield

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 26, 2012:

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The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the January 3 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The December update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in January and then slowing to 1.8% in May. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 1/13/12 the WLI was at 123.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.5%.

A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of January 20 titled “ECRI Recession Call:  Growth Index Contraction Eases” :

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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 9 was at 41.9, as seen below:

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 1-21-10 to 1-21-12:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the January 26 release, the LEI was at 94.3 and the CEI was at 103.4 in December.

An excerpt from the January 26 release:

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The CEI and other recent data reflect an economy that ended 2011 on a positive note and the LEI provides some reason for cautious optimism in the­ first half of 2012. This somewhat positive outlook for a strengthening domestic economy would seem to be at odds with a global economy that is losing some steam. Looking ahead, the big question remains whether cooling conditions elsewhere will limit domestic growth or, conversely, growth in the U.S. will lend some economic support to the rest of the globe.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1318.43 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 22, 2011:

-

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the December 1 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The November update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.2% in November and December and then slowing to 1.6% in April. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 12/9/11 the WLI was at 122.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.5%.

A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of December 16 titled “ECRI Recession Call:  Growth Index Contraction Moderates Fractionally” :

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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of December 13 was at 42.0, as seen below:

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-17-09 to 12-17-11:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the December 22 release, the LEI was at 118 and the CEI was at 103.7 in November.

An excerpt from the December 22 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “November’s increase in the LEI for the U.S. was widespread among the leading indicators and continues to suggest that the risk of an economic downturn in the near term has receded. Interest rate spread and housing permits made the largest contributions to the LEI this month, overcoming a falling average workweek in manufacturing, which reversed its October gain. The CEI also rose on improving employment and personal income although industrial production fell in November.”

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining momentum by spring. For the second month in a row, building permits made a relatively strong contribution and there is a chance that the long decline in housing is finally slowing. However, this somewhat positive outlook for the domestic economy is at odds with a global economy that appears to be losing steam. In particular, a deeper-than-expected recession in Europe could easily derail the outlook for the U.S. economy.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1254.00 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 21, 2011:

-

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the November 8 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The October update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.1% by March. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 11/11/11 the WLI was at 122.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.8%.

A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of November 18 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Decline in Growth Index Continues to Moderate” :

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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:

-

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 11-12-09 to 11-12-11:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the November 18 release, the LEI was at 117.4 and the CEI was at 103.5 in October.

An excerpt from the November 18 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The October rebound of the LEI — largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits — suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded. Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as did the continuing positive contributions from the interest rate spread. The CEI also rose somewhat, led by higher industrial production and employment.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1192.98 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 24, 2011:

-

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the September 27 update titled “Index forecasts continued weak growth” :

The September update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 2% through February. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 10/14/11 the WLI was at 120.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.1%.

-

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:

-

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 10-15-09 to 10-15-11:

-

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the October 20 release, the LEI was at 116.4 and the CEI was at 103.3 in September.

An excerpt from the October 20 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to soft economic conditions through the end of 2011. There is a risk that already low confidence – consumer, business and investor – could weaken further, putting downward pressure on demand and tipping the economy into recession. The probability of a downturn starting over the next few months remains at about 50 percent.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1229.05 as this post is written