EconomicGreenfield

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 20, 2013:

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 5/17/13 (incorporating data through 5/10/13) the WLI was at 130.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.0%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of May 17 titled “Recession Watch: ECRI’s Weekly Leading Indicator Declines” :

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-31-07 through 5-11-13:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the May 17 press release, the LEI was at 95.0 and the CEI was at 105.6 in April.

An excerpt from the May 17 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “After a slight decline in March, the U.S. LEI rebounded in April, led by housing permits and the interest rate spread. Labor market conditions also contributed, although consumers’ outlook on the economy remains weak. In general, the LEI points to a continuing economic expansion with some upside potential. Meanwhile, the CEI, a measure of current conditions, has returned to a slow growth path, despite declining industrial production in April.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of May 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  April Rebound Suggests Continuing Economic Expansion“ :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1666.29 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of April 22, 2013:

-

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 4/19/13 (incorporating data through 4/12/13) the WLI was at 130.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.6%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of April 19 titled “Recession Watch: ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Rises” :

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 4-13-11 to 4-13-13:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the April 18 press release, the LEI was at 94.7 and the CEI was at 105.2 in March.

An excerpt from the April 18 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “After three consecutive gains, the U.S. LEI dipped slightly in March, with equally balanced strengths and weaknesses among its components. The leading indicator still points to a continuing but slow growth environment. Weakness in consumer expectations and housing permits was offset by the positive interest rate spread and other financial components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current conditions, is down since December due to a large decline in personal income.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of April 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  ’Declined Slightly in March’“ :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1552.69 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 25, 2013:

-

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 3/22/13 (incorporating data through 3/15/13) the WLI was at 129.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.4%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of March 22 titled “ECRI’s ‘Recession’ Indicators:  Unchanged from Last Week” :

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 3-16-11 to 3-16-13:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the March 21 press release, the LEI was at 94.8 and the CEI was at 105.1 in February.

An excerpt from the March 21 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. economy is growing slowly now, and with this reading increases hope that it may pick up some momentum in the second half of the year. However, this latest report does not yet capture the recent effects of sequestration, which could dampen the pickup in GDP.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of March 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  ’Economy Continues to Expand Slowly’“ :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1564.22 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 25, 2013:

-

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 2/22/13 (incorporating data through 2/15/13) the WLI was at 129.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.6%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of February 22 titled “ECRI ‘Recession’ Update:  Proprietary Indicators Slip Again” :

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 2-16-11 to 2-16-13:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the February 21 press release, the LEI was at 94.1 and the CEI was at 106.5 in January.

An excerpt from the February release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators point to an underlying economy that remains relatively sound but sluggish. Credit use has picked up, driven in part by relatively strong demand for auto loans. The biggest positive factor is housing. The housing market is now at twice the level reached during its recessionary lows, and will likely continue to improve through the spring, delivering some growth momentum to the labor market and the overall economy. The biggest risk, however, is the adverse impact of cuts in federal spending.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of February 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  ’Slow But Continued Expansion’“ :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1487.85 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 22, 2013:

-

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 1/18/13 (incorporating data through 1/11/13) the WLI was at 130.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.1%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of January 18 titled “ECRI’s Public Indicators Continue to Undermine Their Insistence That We’re in a Recession” :

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 1-12-11 to 1-12-13:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the December 20 press release, the LEI was at 95.8 and the CEI was at 104.9 in November.

An excerpt from the December 20 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators reflect an economy that remains weak in the face of strong domestic and international headwinds, as it faces a looming fiscal cliff. Growth will likely be slow through the early months of 2013.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of December 20 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  Six-Month Growth at Zero” :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1493.53 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 21, 2012:

-

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 12/21/12 (incorporating data through 12/14/12) the WLI was at 127.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.6%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of December 21 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  The Recession Call Is Further Undermined” :

-

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-15-10 to 12-15-12:

-

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the December 20 press release, the LEI was at 95.8 and the CEI was at 104.9 in November.

An excerpt from the December 20 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators reflect an economy that remains weak in the face of strong domestic and international headwinds, as it faces a looming fiscal cliff. Growth will likely be slow through the early months of 2013.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of December 20 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  Six-Month Growth at Zero” :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1430.15 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 26, 2012:

-

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 11/23/12 (incorporating data through 11/16/12) the WLI was at 125.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.8%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of November 23 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  Index Rises, Growth Diminishes” :

-

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 11-17-10 to 11-17-12:

-

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the November 21 release, the LEI was at 96.0 and the CEI was at 104.8 in October.

An excerpt from the November 21 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI increased slightly in October, the second consecutive increase. The LEI still points to modestly expanding economic activity in the near term.  Over the last six months, improvements in the residential construction and financial components of the LEI have offset weak consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders and labor market components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index also increased slightly in October.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of November 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  ’Increasing Slightly’” :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1402.29 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 25, 2012:

-

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 10/19/12 (incorporating data through 10/12/12) the WLI was at 126.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.1%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of October 19 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  Index Slips But Growth Rises” :

-

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 10-13-10 to 10-13-12:

-

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the October 18 release, the LEI was at 95.9 and the CEI was at 105.1 in September.

An excerpt from the October 18 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI increased in September, more than offsetting the decline in August. The LEI has been signaling an economy that is fluctuating around a slow growth trend. The six-month growth rate has slowed substantially, but still remains in growth territory due to positive contributions from the housing and financial components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index also increased in September.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of October 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  Fluctuating Around a Slow-Growth Trend” :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1417.94 as this post is written