Here are those charts, updated in his October 30, 2011 post titled “Recovery Measures.”  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator.  This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak.  If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts, updated through the dates shown: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, now back to the pre-recession peak:

-

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.3% below the pre-recession peak:

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Industrial Production, still 6.5% below the pre-recession peak:

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Payroll Employment, still 4.8% below the pre-recession peak:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1285.08 as this post is written

Here are those charts, updated in his August 2, 2011 post.  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator.  This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak.  If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts, updated through the dates shown: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, now 0.4% below the pre-recession peak:

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Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.1% below the pre-recession peak:

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Industrial Production, still 7.6% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Payroll Employment, still below the pre-recession peak:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1260.34 as this post is written

Here are those charts, updated in his February 6, 2011 post.  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts, updated through the dates shown: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, now 0.14% above the pre-recession peak:

-

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 4.3% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Industrial Production, still 5.8% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Payroll Employment, still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak:

-

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1317.29 as this post is written

That post referenced an April 12  CalculatedRisk blog post titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts.

Here are those charts, updated in his October 29 post.  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, still 0.8% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.5% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Industrial Production, still 7.5% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Payroll Employment, still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak:

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1183.26 as this post is written

My comment:

Although I don’t agree with this quote, it is interesting for a variety of reasons.  It appears to echo the belief of many at this juncture.

For now, I will not further comment on it; however, I may reference it in future posts…

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1050.80 as this post is written

Of course, I am not in agreement with those that believe any material further economic weakness will be avoided.  However, many economists feel differently; as I have noted in the post of June 14 concerning the latest Wall Street Journal Economic Survey, “The economists in the survey put the odds of a double-dip recession at 19%.”

Some of my other thoughts on the idea of a “Double-Dip” scenario can be found at this March 8, 2010 post.

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SPX at 1082.98 as this post is written

In the post he shows four charts, constructed in a “percent of peak” fashion.  Here are the two that I find most notable (the other two not shown: employment and GDP/GDI):

Industrial Production, Percent of Previous Peak:

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, Percent of Previous Peak:

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SPX at 1207.17 as this post is written

There are many noteworthy items in his article, and I could extensively comment on his arguments.  Needless to say I disagree, fully or partially, on many of his points.

I will highlight four items.  First, I found this to be interesting, and it underscores the initial severity of the downturn:

“There was a powerful economic downdraft that started with the failure of Lehman in September 2008 and extended into the winter and spring of 2009. Everybody panicked. Firms laid off employees by the millions, and real gross private domestic investment declined between 2008:Q3 and 2009:Q2 at an unprecedented annual rate of -41.6 percent, even faster than at any time during the Great Depression.”

Second, this is highly notable:

“Thus the American economy is enjoying strong upward momentum that is evident every day in the announcements of retail sales, service sector production, and almost everything else. There are no negatives in the actual data,  but rather the negatives reside in doomsayer worries that consumers are too weak to spend or that the economy will collapse after the Obama stimulus dollars have been spent.”

I strongly disagree with this above statement.  While there have been signs of “strong upward momentum” – as he suggests – there are also many signs of pronounced weakness, broadly seen across many measures.  Various posts on this blog discuss these measures and weaknesses.

Third, he states, “A double dip, i.e., two quarters with negative real GDP growth, is extremely implausible at any time over the next year.”

Fourth, he states, “There are no plausible shocks that would suddenly push real GDP below its trough value of 2009:Q2 in the next year or two.”

Those familiar with this blog know that I view this purported economic recovery as unsustainable, due to a variety of factors.  Needless to say, I don’t agree, for a variety of reasons, with his two above assertions concerning the durability of economic growth.

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SPX at 1192.13 as this post is written

This March 5 article from CNBC.com summarizes some of the opinions regarding the double-dip reasoning and possibilities.

I find these worries about a “double-dip” recession interesting for many reasons.  Perhaps chief among these reasons is that even among those who think a “double-dip” recession is likely, these people don’t seem to believe that any further economic weakness will be worse than that which we experienced during the trough set in late ’08-early ’09.

I’m not sure for the reasoning behind this belief; and I have seen none offered.  However, per my previous posts I don’t believe this is a logical conclusion.

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SPX at 1138.70 as this post is written

I found the following phrase interesting; as this is another forecast that mentions the possibility of a “double-dip” recession in the future:

Also in the story it mentions that Goldman raised its operating earnings estimate on the S&P500 to $52 (from $40) for 2009 and to $75 (from $63) for 2010; and its S&P500 price target for year-end 2009 to 1060 from 940.