EconomicGreenfield

This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog.  The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts.

Here are those charts, updated in his October 30, 2011 post titled “Recovery Measures.”  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator.  This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak.  If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts, updated through the dates shown: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, now back to the pre-recession peak:

-

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.3% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Industrial Production, still 6.5% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Payroll Employment, still 4.8% below the pre-recession peak:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1285.08 as this post is written

This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog.  The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts.

Here are those charts, updated in his August 2, 2011 post.  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator.  This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak.  If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts, updated through the dates shown: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, now 0.4% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.1% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Industrial Production, still 7.6% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Payroll Employment, still below the pre-recession peak:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1260.34 as this post is written

This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog.  The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts.

Here are those charts, updated in his February 6, 2011 post.  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts, updated through the dates shown: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, now 0.14% above the pre-recession peak:

-

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 4.3% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Industrial Production, still 5.8% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Payroll Employment, still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak:

-

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1317.29 as this post is written

On April 21 I wrote a post titled “Recession Measures – Two Charts.”

That post referenced an April 12  CalculatedRisk blog post titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts.

Here are those charts, updated in his October 29 post.  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, still 0.8% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.5% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Industrial Production, still 7.5% below the pre-recession peak:

-

Payroll Employment, still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak:

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1183.26 as this post is written

As an additional note to the last post, on April 12 the CalculatedRisk blog had an interesting post titled “Recession Measures.” In it, he discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries.

In the post he shows four charts, constructed in a “percent of peak” fashion.  Here are the two that I find most notable (the other two not shown: employment and GDP/GDI):

Industrial Production, Percent of Previous Peak:

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, Percent of Previous Peak:

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SPX at 1207.17 as this post is written