Posts Tagged ‘Consumer Confidence’

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Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of 12-30-11

Friday, December 30th, 2011

In yesterday’s post (“4 Confidence Charts – December 2011“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500.

Doug Short had a blog post of December 27 (“Consumer Confidence at an Eight-Month High“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University of Michigan charts in a different fashion.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy.  Of course, the continuing very subdued absolute levels of these two surveys is disconcerting.

Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be very problematical, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted in this blog.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1263.02 as this post is written

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4 Confidence Charts – December 2011

Thursday, December 29th, 2011

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site.

I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare.

Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 12-27-11:

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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, last updated 12-22-11:

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Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (formerly the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index) last updated 12-22-11:

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NFIB Small Business Optimism, last updated 11-8-11:

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As one can see, these charts continue to show subdued readings, especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

These charts should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, they do help to delineate how the economic environment is being perceived.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1256.14 as this post is written

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Confidence Surveys – Another View

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

In yesterday’s post (“4 Confidence Charts – August 2011“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500.

Doug Short had a blog post of August 30 (“Conference Board:  Consumer Confidence Does a Cliff Dive“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University of Michigan charts in a different fashion.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

-

There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy.  Of course, the very subdued absolute levels of these two surveys is disconcerting.

Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be very problematical, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted in this blog.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1209.91 as this post is written

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4 Confidence Charts – August 2011

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site.

I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare.

Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 8-30-11:

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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, last updated 8-30-11:

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Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (formerly the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index) last updated 8-11-11:

 

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NFIB Small Business Optimism, last updated 8-11-11:

 

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As one can see, these charts continue to show subdued readings, especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

These charts should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, they do help to delineate how the economic environment is being perceived.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1221.49 as this post is written

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4 Confidence Charts – June 2011

Thursday, June 2nd, 2011

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site.

I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare.

Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 5-30-11:

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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, last updated 5-27-11:

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Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (formerly the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index) last updated 5-20-11:

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NFIB Small Business Optimism, last updated 5-31-11:

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As one can see, these charts continue to show subdued readings, especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

These charts should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, they do help to delineate how the economic environment is being perceived.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1314.55 as this post is written

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4 Confidence Charts – March 2011

Monday, March 14th, 2011

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site.

I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare.

Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 2-22-11:

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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, last updated 3-11-11:

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Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (formerly the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index) last updated 3-3-11:

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NFIB Small Business Optimism, last updated 2-11-11:

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As one can see, these charts continue to show subdued readings, especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

These charts should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, they do help to delineate how the economic environment is being perceived.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1304.28 as this post is written

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Gallup Economic Surveys – Comments

Thursday, November 18th, 2010

Gallup has a variety of economic surveys that I find interesting.

Here are charts of three that I find especially noteworthy:

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Americans’ Standard of Living Optimism: (reported November 5, 2010)

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U.S. Economic Confidence (reported November 9, 2010)

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U.S. Consumer Spending (reported November 11, 2010)

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At each link, details of each survey are presented.

These charts, along with other Gallup economic surveys,  should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I believe that (economic) surveys, in general, should be interpreted with caution, these Gallup surveys appear to provide a valuable additional perspective on various economic aspects.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1178.59 as this post is written

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S&P500 Vs. Consumer Confidence

Sunday, October 31st, 2010

The following commentary and chart is excerpted from the October 14, 2010 ContraryInvestor.com commentary.  I find it interesting in a variety of different ways, and it raises a lot of questions with regard to the stock market, consumer confidence, QE1, and QE2…

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“We have not touched on consumer confidence for a good while, but now is the time.  It’s time because of the certainty of QE ahead.  Again, absolutely key question being, will QE2 positively influence the real economy?  QE I was a strike out.  And what of QE2?  We believe a key indicator to watch as to whether QE2 will transmit to the real economy is the present conditions component of the headline consumer confidence index.  Clearly the aim of QE2 is to inflate asset prices even further, let’s not beat around the bush about it.  QE I inflated financial and commodity prices, but left real world prices of leveraged residential real estate and commercial real estate untouched.  Moreover, QE I did not help headline consumer confidence recover.  We’ll spare you the chart, but headline consumer confidence continues to rest at levels historically consistent with recession.  Very quickly, the headline consumer confidence report is driven by two subcomponents that are present conditions and future expectations.  Historically, the present conditions component of the headline number has been highly directionally correlated with the equity market over time.  You can see exactly this in the chart below.  Of course without the Fed overtly telling us this as a driver of their QE2 decision making, they are implicitly hoping higher stock prices (the assumed wealth effect) will engender accelerating consumer confidence, thereby motivating consumers to borrow and spend (or at worst just spend).  This likewise had to be a key rationale of QE I as the Fed is surely aware of this prior cycle linkage between stock prices and confidence in present conditions.

But what stands out like a sore thumb in the chart above is that the present conditions component of the confidence report never recovered at all even as equities experienced one of the greatest 13 month rallies in history under QE I (exactly as we marked in the chart) from March of 2009 through April of this year.  Moreover, and as is also clear, even as heavy Fed POMO was kicked off in August and September that lifted stocks to their greatest September gain in over seven decades, the present conditions component of the consumer confidence survey continued to deteriorate up through the most recent numbers.  Message being?  At least for now consumer confidence is not being bolstered by financial asset price inflation.  A complete anomaly relative to historical experience.  QE2 is clearly a bet this anomaly will fall back in rhythm with historical experience.  So, we need to intently watch the present conditions component of the consumer confidence report ahead for clues as to whether QE2 will positively impact the real economy through bolstering consumer confidence, or otherwise.”

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1183.26 as this post is written


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4 Confidence Charts – October 2010

Friday, October 22nd, 2010

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site.

I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare.

Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)


Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 9-28-10:


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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, last updated 10-15-10:



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ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, last updated 10-7-10:


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NFIB Small Business Optimism, last updated 10-21-10:


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As one can see, these charts continue to show subdued readings, especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

These charts should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, they do help to delineate how the economic environment is being perceived.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1180.26 as this post is written

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4 Confidence Charts

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site.

I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare.

Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 6-29-10:

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, last updated 7-16-10:

ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, last updated 7-8-10:


NFIB Small Business Optimism, last updated 7-15-10:

As one can see, these charts continue to show subdued readings, especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

These charts should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, they do help to delineate how the economic environment is being perceived.

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SPX at 1094.59 as this post is written



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