Tag Archives: Conference Board LEI

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.08; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.27):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of November 18, 2016 (incorporating data through November 11, 2016) the WLI was at 139.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.2%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 18, 2016:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 12, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the November 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.5, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 122.9 in October.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The interest rate spread and average weekly hours were the main drivers of October’s improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 18:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2198.18 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.21):

cfnai-monthly-ma3-png-10-24-16

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 21, 2016 (incorporating data through October 14, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of October 21, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 15, 2016:

ADS Index

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the October 20, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.4, the CEI was at 114.2, and the LAG was 122.3 in September.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in September, reversing its August decline, which together with the pickup in the six-month growth rate suggests that the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace through early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, and the interest rate spread were the main components lifting the index in September. Overall, the strengths among the leading indicators are outweighing modest weaknesses in stock prices and the average workweek.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 20:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2151.33 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators September 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The September 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.55; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of September 16, 2016 (incorporating data through September 9, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of September 16, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the September 22, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.1, the CEI was at 114.1, and the LAG was 122.1 in August.

An excerpt from the September 22 release:

“While the U.S. LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are roughly balanced, positive contributions from the financial indicators were more than offset by weakening of nonfinancial indicators, such as leading indicators of labor markets, suggesting some risks to growth persist.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of September 22:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2177.18 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .27; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.10):

cfnai-monthly-ma3 8-22-16

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of August 19, 2016 (incorporating data through August 12, 2016) the WLI was at 137.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.4%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of August 19, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 13, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the August 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.3, the CEI was at 113.9, and the LAG was 121.8 in July.

An excerpt from the August 18 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up again in July, suggesting moderate economic growth should continue through the end of 2016,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “There may even be some moderate upside growth potential if recent improvements in manufacturing and construction are sustained, and average consumer expectations don’t deteriorate further.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 18:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2179.07 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .16; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.12):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of July 15, 2016 (incorporating data through July 8, 2016) the WLI was at 137.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.9%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of July 15, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI Up .3”:

WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the July 21, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.8, and the LAG was 121.9 in June.

An excerpt from the July 21 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up in June, reversing its May decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Improvements in initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and financial indicators were the primary drivers. While the LEI continues to point to moderating economic growth in the U.S. through the end of 2016, the expansion still appears resilient enough to weather volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of July 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index ‘Picked Up in June’“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2171.44 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators June 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 23, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.51; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.36):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of June 17, 2016 (incorporating data through June 10, 2016) the WLI was at 136.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of June 17, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI Down Slightly, But Growth Index Increases”:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through June 11, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the June 23, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.5, and the LAG was 121.9 in May.

An excerpt from the June 23 release:

“The US LEI declined in May, primarily due to a sharp increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The growth rate of the LEI has moderated over the past year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “While the LEI suggests the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace in the near term, volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets could pose downside risks to growth.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of June 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Decrease in May“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2101.54 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 19, 2016: (current reading of .10; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.22):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of May 13, 2016 (incorporating data through May 6, 2016) the WLI was at 135.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 5.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of May 13, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slightly, YoY at 1.01%“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 14, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the May 19, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.9, the CEI was at 113.6, and the LAG was 121.5 in April.

An excerpt from the May 19 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up sharply in April, with all components except consumer expectations contributing to the rebound from an essentially flat first quarter,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite a slow start in 2016, labor market and financial indicators, and housing permits all point to a moderate growth trend continuing in 2016.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2040.04 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 21, 2016: (current reading of -.44; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.18):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of April 15, 2016 (incorporating data through April 8, 2016) the WLI was at 134.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of April 15, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 16, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the April 21, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.4, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 120.9 in March.

An excerpt from the April 21 release:

With the March gain, the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate improved slightly but still points to slow, although not slowing, growth in the coming quarters,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Rebounding stock prices were offset by a decline in housing permits, but nonetheless there were widespread gains among the leading indicators. Financial conditions, as well as expected improvements in manufacturing, should support a modest growth environment in 2016.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of April 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increase in March“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2094.36 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 21, 2016: (current reading of -.29; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of March 18, 2016 (incorporating data through March 11, 2016) the WLI was at 131.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.3%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of March 18, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 12, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the March 17, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.2, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 120.4 in February.

An excerpt from the March 17 release:

“The U.S. LEI increased slightly in February, after back-to-back monthly declines, but housing permits, stock prices, consumer expectations, and new orders remain sources of weakness,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although the LEI’s six-month growth rate has moderated considerably in recent months, the outlook remains positive with little chance of a downturn in the near-term.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of March 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in February“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2045.41 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 22, 2016: (current reading of +.28; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.15):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of February 19, 2016 (incorporating data through February 12, 2016) the WLI was at 128.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of February 19, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Down from Last Week“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 13, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the February 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.2, the CEI was at 113.2, and the LAG was 120.0 in January.

An excerpt from the February 18 release:

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in January, driven primarily by large declines in stock prices and further weakness in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite back-to-back monthly declines, the index doesn’t signal a significant increase in the risk of recession, and its six-month growth rate remains consistent with a modest economic expansion through early 2016.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of February 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Decrease in January for Second Consecutive Month“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1943.12 as this post is written