Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The March 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 20, 2017:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .34:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 20, 2017;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .25:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 20, 2017;
As of March 17, 2017 (incorporating data through March 10, 2017) the WLI was at 145.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 9.6%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of March17, 2017:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 11, 2017:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the March 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in February” (pdf) the LEI was at 126.2, the CEI was at 114.9, and the LAG was 123.5 in February.
An excerpt from the release:
“After six consecutive monthly gains, the U.S. LEI is at its highest level in over a decade. Widespread gains across a majority of the leading indicators points to an improving economic outlook for 2017, although GDP growth is likely to remain moderate,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Only housing permits contributed negatively to the LEI in February, reversing gains over the previous two months.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of March 17, 2017:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2376.00 as this post is written