Tag Archives: ADS Index

Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .16; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.12):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of July 15, 2016 (incorporating data through July 8, 2016) the WLI was at 137.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.9%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of July 15, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI Up .3”:

WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the July 21, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.8, and the LAG was 121.9 in June.

An excerpt from the July 21 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up in June, reversing its May decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Improvements in initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and financial indicators were the primary drivers. While the LEI continues to point to moderating economic growth in the U.S. through the end of 2016, the expansion still appears resilient enough to weather volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of July 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index ‘Picked Up in June’“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2171.44 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators June 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 23, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.51; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.36):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of June 17, 2016 (incorporating data through June 10, 2016) the WLI was at 136.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of June 17, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI Down Slightly, But Growth Index Increases”:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through June 11, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the June 23, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.5, and the LAG was 121.9 in May.

An excerpt from the June 23 release:

“The US LEI declined in May, primarily due to a sharp increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The growth rate of the LEI has moderated over the past year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “While the LEI suggests the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace in the near term, volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets could pose downside risks to growth.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of June 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Decrease in May“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2101.54 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 19, 2016: (current reading of .10; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.22):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of May 13, 2016 (incorporating data through May 6, 2016) the WLI was at 135.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 5.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of May 13, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slightly, YoY at 1.01%“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 14, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the May 19, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.9, the CEI was at 113.6, and the LAG was 121.5 in April.

An excerpt from the May 19 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up sharply in April, with all components except consumer expectations contributing to the rebound from an essentially flat first quarter,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite a slow start in 2016, labor market and financial indicators, and housing permits all point to a moderate growth trend continuing in 2016.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2040.04 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 21, 2016: (current reading of -.44; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.18):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of April 15, 2016 (incorporating data through April 8, 2016) the WLI was at 134.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of April 15, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 16, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the April 21, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.4, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 120.9 in March.

An excerpt from the April 21 release:

With the March gain, the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate improved slightly but still points to slow, although not slowing, growth in the coming quarters,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Rebounding stock prices were offset by a decline in housing permits, but nonetheless there were widespread gains among the leading indicators. Financial conditions, as well as expected improvements in manufacturing, should support a modest growth environment in 2016.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of April 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increase in March“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2094.36 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 21, 2016: (current reading of -.29; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of March 18, 2016 (incorporating data through March 11, 2016) the WLI was at 131.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.3%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of March 18, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 12, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the March 17, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.2, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 120.4 in February.

An excerpt from the March 17 release:

“The U.S. LEI increased slightly in February, after back-to-back monthly declines, but housing permits, stock prices, consumer expectations, and new orders remain sources of weakness,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although the LEI’s six-month growth rate has moderated considerably in recent months, the outlook remains positive with little chance of a downturn in the near-term.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of March 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in February“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2045.41 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 22, 2016: (current reading of +.28; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.15):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of February 19, 2016 (incorporating data through February 12, 2016) the WLI was at 128.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of February 19, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Down from Last Week“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 13, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the February 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.2, the CEI was at 113.2, and the LAG was 120.0 in January.

An excerpt from the February 18 release:

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in January, driven primarily by large declines in stock prices and further weakness in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite back-to-back monthly declines, the index doesn’t signal a significant increase in the risk of recession, and its six-month growth rate remains consistent with a modest economic expansion through early 2016.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of February 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Decrease in January for Second Consecutive Month“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1943.12 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2016: (current reading of -.22; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.24):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of January 22, 2016 (incorporating data through January 15, 2016) the WLI was at 130.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at -1.9%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of January 22, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Decrease from the Previous Week“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 16, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the January 22, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.0, and the LAG was 119.9 in December.

An excerpt from the January 22 release:

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in December, led by a drop in housing permits and weak new orders in manufacturing,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “However, the index continues to suggest moderate growth in the near-term despite the economy losing some momentum at the end of 2015. While the LEI’s growth rate has been on the decline, it’s too early to interpret this as a substantial rise in the risk of recession.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of January 22 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Decrease in December“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1893.90 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 21, 2015:

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of December 18, 2015 (incorporating data through December 11, 2015) the WLI was at 131.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.6%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of December 18, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: ‘Another Fractional Decrease from Previous Week’“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 12, 2015:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the December 17, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 119.6 in November.

An excerpt from the December 17 release:

“The U.S. LEI registered another increase in November, with building permits, the interest rate spread, and stock prices driving the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although the six-month growth rate of the LEI has moderated, the economic outlook for the final quarter of the year and into the new year remains positive.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of December 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in November“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2013.38 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 23, 2015:

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of November 20, 2015 (incorporating data through November 13, 2015) the WLI was at 131.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.6%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of November 20, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: ‘Multiple Jobholders Boost ‘Full-Time’ Employment’“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 14, 2015:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the November 19, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Sharply in October,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.1, the CEI was at 113.0, and the LAG was 119.3 in October.

An excerpt from the November 19 release:

“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October, with the yield spread, stock prices, and building permits driving the increase,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite lackluster third quarter growth, the economic outlook now appears to be improving. While the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate has moderated, the U.S. economy remains on track for continued expansion heading into 2016.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of November 19 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Rose in October“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2094.72 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 22, 2015:

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 16, 2015 (incorporating data through October 9, 2015) the WLI was at 128.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.2%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of October 16, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: ‘Recession Kills Inflation’“:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 17, 2015:

ads_2007_10-17-15

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the October 22, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.3, the CEI was at 112.8, and the LAG was 119.0 in September.

An excerpt from the October 22 release:

“Despite September’s decline, the U.S. LEI still suggests economic expansion will continue, although at a moderate pace,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The recent weakness in stock markets, the manufacturing sector and housing permits was offset by gains in financial indicators, and to a lesser extent improvements in consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The U.S. economy is on track for moderate growth of about 2.5 percent in the coming quarters, despite the mixed global economic landscape.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of October 22 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Declined in September“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2045.94 as this post is written