Tag Archives: ADS Index

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 21, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of -.01:

CFNAI 8-1-17

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.05:

CFNAI-MA3_8-21-17 -.05

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of August 18, 2017 (incorporating data through August 11, 2017) the WLI was at 144.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of August 18, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 12, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the August 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July” (pdf) the LEI was at 128.3, the CEI was at 115.7, and the LAG was 124.8 in July.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI improved in July, suggesting the U.S. economy may experience further improvements in economic activity in the second half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The large negative contribution from housing permits, a reversal from June, was more than offset by gains in the financial indicators, new orders and sentiment.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 17, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2426.01 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 27, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .13:

CFNAI

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 27, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .06:

CFNAI-MA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 27, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of July 21, 2017 (incorporating data through July 14, 2017) the WLI was at 143.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.6%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of July 21, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 22, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the July 20, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in June” (pdf) the LEI was at 127.8, the CEI was at 115.5, and the LAG was 124.4 in June.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in June, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. economy and perhaps even a moderate improvement in GDP growth in the second half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The broad-based gain in the U.S. LEI was led by a large contribution from housing permits, which improved after several months of weakness.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of July 20, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2478.16 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators June 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 26, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of -.26:

CFNAI_6-26-17

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, June 26, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .04:

CFNAI-MA3_6-26-17

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, June 26, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of June 23, 2017 (incorporating data through June 16, 2017) the WLI was at 143.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.4%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of June 23, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through June 17, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the June 22, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in May” (pdf) the LEI was at 127.0, the CEI was at 115.3, and the LAG was 124.2 in May.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI continued on its upward trend in May, suggesting the economy is likely to remain on, or perhaps even moderately above, its long-term trend of about 2 percent growth for the remainder of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The improvement was widespread among the majority of the leading indicators except for housing permits, which declined again. And, the average workweek in manufacturing has recently shown no sign of improvement.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of June 22, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2439.97 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 22, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .49:

CFNAI_5-22-17 .49

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 22, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .23:

CFNAI-MA3_5-22-17 .23

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 22, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of May 19, 2017 (incorporating data through May 12, 2017) the WLI was at 144.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 5.0%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of May 19, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 13, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the May 18, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in April” (pdf) the LEI was at 126.9, the CEI was at 115.2, and the LAG was 124.1 in April.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The recent trend in the U.S. LEI, led by the positive outlook of consumers and financial markets, continues to point to a growing economy, perhaps even a cyclical pickup,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “First quarter’s weak GDP growth is likely a temporary hiccup as the economy returns to its long-term trend of about 2 percent. While the majority of leading indicators have been contributing positively in recent months, housing permits followed by average workweek in manufacturing have been the sources of weakness among the U.S. LEI components.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of May 18, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2392.93 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 24, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .08:

CFNAI

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 24, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .03:

CFNAIMA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 24, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of April 21, 2017 (incorporating data through April 14, 2017) the WLI was at 144.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of April 21, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr. since 2000

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 15, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the April 20, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in March” (pdf) the LEI was at 126.7, the CEI was at 114.9, and the LAG was 123.6 in March.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The March increase and upward trend in the U.S. LEI point to continued economic growth in 2017, with perhaps an acceleration later in the year if consumer spending and investment pick up,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The gains among the leading indicators were very widespread, with new orders in manufacturing and the interest rate spread more than offsetting declines in the labor market components in March.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of April 20, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2374.76 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 20, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .34:

CFNAI

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 20, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .25:

CFNAIMA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 20, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of March 17, 2017 (incorporating data through March 10, 2017) the WLI was at 145.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 9.6%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of March17, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 11, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the March 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in February” (pdf) the LEI was at 126.2, the CEI was at 114.9, and the LAG was 123.5 in February.

An excerpt from the  release:

“After six consecutive monthly gains, the U.S. LEI is at its highest level in over a decade. Widespread gains across a majority of the leading indicators points to an improving economic outlook for 2017, although GDP growth is likely to remain moderate,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Only housing permits contributed negatively to the LEI in February, reversing gains over the previous two months.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of March 17, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2376.00 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 23, 2017: (current reading of CFNAI is -.05; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.03):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of February 17, 2017 (incorporating data through February 10, 2017) the WLI was at 144.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 11.1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of February 17, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 18, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the February 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 125.5, the CEI was at 114.4, and the LAG was 123.7 in January.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased sharply again in January, pointing to a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The January gain was broad based among the leading indicators. If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 17, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2361.38 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2017: (current reading of CFNAI is .14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):

CFNAI January 2017

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of January 20, 2017 (incorporating data through January 13, 2017) the WLI was at 145.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 12.0%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of January 20, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 21, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the January 26, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 123.4 in December.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “December’s large gain was mainly driven by improving sentiment about the outlook and suggests the business cycle still showed strong momentum in the final months of 2016.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of January 16, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2299.51 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.27; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.14):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of December 16, 2016 (incorporating data through December 9, 2016) the WLI was at 143.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 11.0%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of December 16, 2016:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the December 16, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Remains Flat in November,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 114.6, and the LAG was 123.2 in November.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continued on an upward trend through 2016, although at a moderate pace of growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The underlying trends in the LEI suggest that the economy will continue expanding into the first half of 2017, but it’s unlikely to considerably accelerate. Although the industrial and construction indicators held the U.S. LEI back in November, the weakness was offset by improvements in the interest rate spread, initial unemployment insurance claims, and stock prices.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2260.97 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.08; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.27):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of November 18, 2016 (incorporating data through November 11, 2016) the WLI was at 139.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.2%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 18, 2016:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 12, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the November 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.5, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 122.9 in October.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The interest rate spread and average weekly hours were the main drivers of October’s improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 18:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2198.18 as this post is written