Tag Archives: ADS Index

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 20, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .34:

CFNAI

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 20, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .25:

CFNAIMA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 20, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of March 17, 2017 (incorporating data through March 10, 2017) the WLI was at 145.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 9.6%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of March17, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 11, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the March 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in February” (pdf) the LEI was at 126.2, the CEI was at 114.9, and the LAG was 123.5 in February.

An excerpt from the  release:

“After six consecutive monthly gains, the U.S. LEI is at its highest level in over a decade. Widespread gains across a majority of the leading indicators points to an improving economic outlook for 2017, although GDP growth is likely to remain moderate,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Only housing permits contributed negatively to the LEI in February, reversing gains over the previous two months.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of March 17, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2376.00 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 23, 2017: (current reading of CFNAI is -.05; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.03):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of February 17, 2017 (incorporating data through February 10, 2017) the WLI was at 144.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 11.1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of February 17, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 18, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the February 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 125.5, the CEI was at 114.4, and the LAG was 123.7 in January.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased sharply again in January, pointing to a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The January gain was broad based among the leading indicators. If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 17, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2361.38 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2017: (current reading of CFNAI is .14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):

CFNAI January 2017

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of January 20, 2017 (incorporating data through January 13, 2017) the WLI was at 145.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 12.0%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of January 20, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 21, 2017:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the January 26, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 123.4 in December.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “December’s large gain was mainly driven by improving sentiment about the outlook and suggests the business cycle still showed strong momentum in the final months of 2016.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of January 16, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2299.51 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.27; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.14):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of December 16, 2016 (incorporating data through December 9, 2016) the WLI was at 143.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 11.0%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of December 16, 2016:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the December 16, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Remains Flat in November,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 114.6, and the LAG was 123.2 in November.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continued on an upward trend through 2016, although at a moderate pace of growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The underlying trends in the LEI suggest that the economy will continue expanding into the first half of 2017, but it’s unlikely to considerably accelerate. Although the industrial and construction indicators held the U.S. LEI back in November, the weakness was offset by improvements in the interest rate spread, initial unemployment insurance claims, and stock prices.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2260.97 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.08; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.27):

CFNAI

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of November 18, 2016 (incorporating data through November 11, 2016) the WLI was at 139.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.2%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 18, 2016:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 12, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the November 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.5, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 122.9 in October.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The interest rate spread and average weekly hours were the main drivers of October’s improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 18:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2198.18 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 24, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.21):

cfnai-monthly-ma3-png-10-24-16

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 21, 2016 (incorporating data through October 14, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of October 21, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 15, 2016:

ADS Index

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the October 20, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.4, the CEI was at 114.2, and the LAG was 122.3 in September.

An excerpt from the  release:

“The U.S. LEI increased in September, reversing its August decline, which together with the pickup in the six-month growth rate suggests that the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace through early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, and the interest rate spread were the main components lifting the index in September. Overall, the strengths among the leading indicators are outweighing modest weaknesses in stock prices and the average workweek.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 20:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2151.33 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators September 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The September 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.55; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of September 16, 2016 (incorporating data through September 9, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of September 16, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the September 22, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.1, the CEI was at 114.1, and the LAG was 122.1 in August.

An excerpt from the September 22 release:

“While the U.S. LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are roughly balanced, positive contributions from the financial indicators were more than offset by weakening of nonfinancial indicators, such as leading indicators of labor markets, suggesting some risks to growth persist.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of September 22:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2177.18 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .27; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.10):

cfnai-monthly-ma3 8-22-16

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of August 19, 2016 (incorporating data through August 12, 2016) the WLI was at 137.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.4%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of August 19, 2016:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 13, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the August 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.3, the CEI was at 113.9, and the LAG was 121.8 in July.

An excerpt from the August 18 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up again in July, suggesting moderate economic growth should continue through the end of 2016,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “There may even be some moderate upside growth potential if recent improvements in manufacturing and construction are sustained, and average consumer expectations don’t deteriorate further.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 18:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2179.07 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .16; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.12):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of July 15, 2016 (incorporating data through July 8, 2016) the WLI was at 137.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.9%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of July 15, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI Up .3”:

WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 17, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the July 21, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.8, and the LAG was 121.9 in June.

An excerpt from the July 21 release:

“The U.S. LEI picked up in June, reversing its May decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Improvements in initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and financial indicators were the primary drivers. While the LEI continues to point to moderating economic growth in the U.S. through the end of 2016, the expansion still appears resilient enough to weather volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of July 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index ‘Picked Up in June’“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2171.44 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators June 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 23, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.51; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.36):

CFNAI-MA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of June 17, 2016 (incorporating data through June 10, 2016) the WLI was at 136.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of June 17, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI Down Slightly, But Growth Index Increases”:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through June 11, 2016:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the June 23, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.5, and the LAG was 121.9 in May.

An excerpt from the June 23 release:

“The US LEI declined in May, primarily due to a sharp increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The growth rate of the LEI has moderated over the past year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “While the LEI suggests the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace in the near term, volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets could pose downside risks to growth.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of June 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Decrease in May“:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2101.54 as this post is written