Comments for EconomicGreenfield

Comment on The Quality Of Deficit Spending by David Maskalick

David Maskalick — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 16:37:20 +0000

I agree completely. Our government spending should first maintain public services and public infrastructure and while doing so learn from experience to make our public services and infrastructure more efficient and more durable. Only when we have a budget surplus should our government be spending our hard earned tax dollars on adding new and uneeded excessses such as high speed trains. Since our nation currently has an enormous budget deficit and national debt I do not forsee our nation having a budget surplus any time in the near future.

Comment on Characteristics Of The Housing Bubble by Richard Alber

Richard Alber — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 12:31:55 +0000

You are kind to put a positive note in the article with “successful” reflation but there are too many factors pointing to your 2nd possibility; government debt (Federal, state and local), private debt, discrentionay income spending, value of our dollar. I think you nailed it correctly, the real estate bubble really has not burst yet. Watch out when it does!

Comment on Ben Bernanke’s January 3rd Speech by 1993Sport

1993Sport — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:19:14 +0000

Wow! Are these people in denial or perhaps living in oblivion? How can they stand there and give a speech with those statements with a straight face? After the 9/11, they purposely created this bubble in the housing sector via easy & lax credit and pushing new housing starts at a rate beyond anything this country has ever seen before, expect perhaps right after WWII. The auto industry was another prime example of this same mentality. Giving away cars/trucks at 0% for 60-72 months is a novel promotion, but to do it year-after-year-after-year; it eventually amount to suicide. They purposely created false-demand via cheap-easy credit and too many people took the bait. Now we’re all paying for it. The sad thing is, in BOTH cases, that it was very obvious what was going on, even in 2003. Why they let it go so long…2008… is beyond all common sense.

Comment on Danger In The Markets? Part V by Ted Kavadas

Ted Kavadas — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:20:35 +0000

Richard – thanks…

Comment on Danger In The Markets? Part V by Ted Kavadas

Ted Kavadas — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:18:39 +0000

David – let me try to answer you questions in blog posts…they are way too lengthy to respond here…

Comment on Danger In The Markets? Part V by Richard Nicholson

Richard Nicholson — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:46:19 +0000

Thanks for a thoughtful analysis. I am trying to figure out how to buy some protection while still playing out the current trend while trying not to be a “sucker”. (Probably defines me as a sucker, LOL.)

Comment on Danger In The Markets? Part V by David

David — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:17:54 +0000

What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish? Since the OEX (S&P100) has already broken through the resistance line, the S&P500 may be soon behind. If resistance is broken, would you then have to change your outlook? I am also quarreling over such a contrarian outlook as you are. Only, I’m not sure how to factor in what I’m convinced happened… Fed flooded the financial system with money and gave the banks taxpayer money and a promise that nobody else was going to fail so THEY invested in the stock market and with imperfect information, drove it much higher between March and May. Do you have a corrective means to adjust for such manipulation and futhermore, with the bank’s heavy hand in the market, would you be able to detect them selling into the eventual wave of retail money getting into the positions THEY want to exit?

Comment on A Few Comments About Gold by HardRock

HardRock — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 19:34:41 +0000

My theory of gold now leading stocks is that the asians are driving the metals price, but they have no way to invest in North American gold stocks.

Another take is that the institutions are moving down the food chain, from the large caps that are in the HUI, to smaller juniors who are not in any index.

Comment on Danger In The Markets? Part I by ThirstyHowl

ThirstyHowl — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:27:38 +0000

Step back a minute. People talk about the financial markets as if it’s all about the financial industry. The events of 1929 were NOT all about the bankers.

In 1926, the number of railroad track miles in North America reached a peak. Over the next ten years, MOST Americans needed to find different employment, often radically different employment, and in many cases employment that simply did not exist in the 1920s.

In 2008, the United States may have come to the end of the Oil Economy. A LARGE fraction of the stimulus bill other than banking subsidies went to electric vehicles and battery trechnologies. Many towns in the American upper midwest will simply rust out. The new cars will be expensive and the market will grow slowly from a smaller base. It’s the classic crash pattern.

But until the music stops, there’s no point in joining a company where people actually WORK. I have do that in my spare time, because actual work doesn’t pay much. And as you’ve noticed from the unemployment numbers, it’s a lot risker than finance. In the meantime, I want a day job that pays those bonuses I keep hearing about on the news. How can I get in line if I’m over 35?

Comment on Gold Below $1000 by Grady

Grady — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:38:53 +0000

True enough gold didn’t fare well fall 2008, but I don’t take that as reflecing poorly on it’s near- to mid- term outlook. People fled into cash as their ‘haven’, but this was a move based on ignorance and panic. They had to put their $ somewhere fast, so they did what was easy. But obviously gold has been a far better place to be than cash or equities over the past 8 years, and as more people become aware of that, gold will become one of the preferred havens, IMO.

A LOT of fundamentals favor gold right now–central banks are buying gold; the Chinese gov’t is urging its citizens to put savings into gold; political turmoil; the supply demand equation; the shaky status of the dollar.

Finally there are a lot of very savvy investors out there who argue gold is going to go up. Jim Sinclair (jsmineset.com), Martin Armstrong, Alf Fields, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber. They might be doing this out of self-interest, but I don’t buy that argument.

I enjoyed your TA of why the equities market is about to turn, thanks!