Archive for the ‘Unemployment’ Category

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – July 2011

Monday, July 11th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 7-8-11)

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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

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Lastly, a chart from the CalculatedRisk.com site, from the July 8 post titled “Employment Summary, Part Time Workers and Unemployed over 26 Weeks.” This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions, as shown:

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As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1343.80 as this post is written

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McKinsey June 2011 Report On Job Creation – My Comments

Wednesday, July 6th, 2011

Recently McKinsey released a report titled “An economy that works:  Job creation and America’s future” (June 2011)(pdf)

While I don’t agree with various of the report’s assumptions and conclusions, I am posting the report because it is a notable long-term forecast and discussion of the U.S. employment situation.

An excerpt from the Executive Summary (page 1):

The results of our analysis are sobering:  only in the most optimistic scenario will the United States return to full employment before 2020.  Achieving this outcome will require sustained demand growth, rising US competitiveness in the global economy, and better matching of US workers to jobs.

In a footnote to the above excerpt, McKinsey defines “full employment” as 5% unemployment.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1337.88 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – June 2011

Monday, June 6th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 6-3-11)

-

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

-

Lastly, a chart from the CalculatedRisk.com site, from the June 3 post titled “Employment Summary, Part Time Workers and Unemployed over 26 Weeks.” This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions, as shown:

-

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1300.16 as this post is written

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New College Graduates And The Job Market

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

On May 18 The New York Times had a story titled “Many With New College Degree Find the Job Market Humbling.”

While I think the entire article is worthwhile reading, two excerpts are particularly notable:

“What’s more, only half of the jobs landed by these new graduates even require a college degree, reviving debates about whether higher education is “worth it” after all.”

also:

“The median starting salary for students graduating from four-year colleges in 2009 and 2010 was $27,000, down from $30,000 for those who entered the work force in 2006 to 2008, according to a study released on Wednesday by the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. That is a decline of 10 percent, even before taking inflation into account.”

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my comment:

This situation of recent college graduates unable to find (suitable) jobs is very problematical and pernicious on many levels.  The negative impacts of the situation far transcend the college graduates involved.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1333.27 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – May 2011

Monday, May 9th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 5-6-11)

-

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

-

Lastly, a chart from the CalculatedRisk.com site, from the May 6 post titled “Employment Summary, Part Time Workers and Unemployed over 26 Weeks.” This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions, as shown:

-

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1340.20 as this post is written

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When Will Hiring Substantially Improve?

Wednesday, April 20th, 2011

One factor that makes this unemployment situation so atypical, relative to past recoveries, is that while revenues, and particularly profits, have rebounded strongly, hiring has been (at best) anemic.  This is illustrated in the following chart, seen in the ContraryInvestor.com commentary of April 12:

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One is led to wonder when hiring will accelerate at a substantial pace.  A recent Deloitte survey of CFOs (the Q1 “CFO Signals” report) and their opinions on factors impacting domestic hiring may be an indication.   On April 14, The Wall Street Journal RTE blog summarized the report’s finding on the issue in “CFOs: Revenue Boost Needed to Boost Hiring.” As seen in the story, “The quarterly survey released Thursday found that nearly half of respondents would seriously consider adding employees if revenues rose 20%, but few would be moved by a 5% increase. A 10% bump in revenue would only be a major hiring consideration for 11% of CFOs.”  The story also contains a table indicating other factors and their importance in hiring.

The Deloitte survey, if representative of the overall hiring environment, seems to indicate that a robust amount of hiring will not be occurring for a while – and that assumes that economic growth continues.

Another facet of this hiring situation – one that I haven’t heard mentioned, is the following:  Given that unemployment is so high despite the high level of corporate profitability,  what does the future hold for unemployment trends if / when corporate profitability declines?

There are many facets of this unemployment situation that go unmentioned.  Unemployment remains a very complex issue and is far more problematical than generally acknowledged.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1312.62 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – April 2011

Monday, April 4th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 4-1-11)

-

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

-

Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

(this chart updated as of March 3, 2011)

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1332.41 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – March 2011

Sunday, March 6th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated  unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 3-4-11)

-

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

-

Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1321.15 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – February 2011

Sunday, February 6th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated  unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 2-4-11)

-

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

-

Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1310.87 as this post is written

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – January 2011

Monday, January 10th, 2011

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated  unemployment situation.

The first two charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment:

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 1-7-11)

-

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over:

-

Lastly, a chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve site.  This shows the employment situation vs. that of previous recessions (as characterized by severity):

As depicted by these charts, our unemployment problem is severe.  Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any “easy” solutions.

In July 2009 I wrote a series of five blog posts titled “Why Aren’t Companies Hiring?”, which discusses various aspects of the topic, many of which lack recognition.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1271.50 as this post is written

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