Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

November 10 Gallup Poll On Americans’ Ability To Afford Food – Notable Excerpts

Monday, November 14th, 2011

In the October 17 post (“Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy“) I mentioned in point #6 “…numerous signs of broad-based financial strain among households.”

A November 10 Gallup poll titled “Americans’ Ability to Afford Food Nears Three-Year Low” illustrates one of these strains.

Here are what I found as the most notable excerpts from the poll results:

The percentage of Americans reporting that they had enough money to buy the food they or their families needed continued to decline in October, nearing the record low seen in November 2008. The percentage who did not lack money for food in 2011 fell to 79.8% from 80.1% in September, continuing a decline that began in April.

also:

This measure — which asks if one had enough money to buy food in the past 12 months – has decreased to its lowest level of the calendar year each October since 2009. The reason for this pattern is unclear and does not appear to be related to world food prices.

also:

Americans’ access to basic needs is now at the lowest level recorded since Gallup and Healthways began tracking it in January 2008. The Basic Access Index — which comprises 13 measures, including Americans’ ability to afford food, housing, and healthcare — declined to a record-low score of 81.2 in October. This means Americans’ access to basic needs, though still high in an absolute sense, is now worse than it was throughout the economic crisis and recession, including the prior record lows recorded in February and March 2009.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1263.85 as this post is written

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Disturbing Charts (Update 5)

Monday, October 31st, 2011

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 28 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.  I regularly discuss many troubling characteristics of our economy in this EconomicGreenfield.com blog.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from The Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 10-19-11):

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The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-14-11):

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Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-14-11):

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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-29-11):

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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-12-11):

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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-12-11):

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M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 10-27-11):

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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 10-7-11):

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This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of 10-7-11, titled “September Unemployment Report…” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

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This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 10-24-11):

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I will update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1253.30 as this post is written

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Recession Measures – Updated

Monday, October 31st, 2011

This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog.  The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts.

Here are those charts, updated in his October 30, 2011 post titled “Recovery Measures.”  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator.  This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak.  If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts, updated through the dates shown: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, now back to the pre-recession peak:

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Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.3% below the pre-recession peak:

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Industrial Production, still 6.5% below the pre-recession peak:

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Payroll Employment, still 4.8% below the pre-recession peak:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1285.08 as this post is written

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts

Friday, October 28th, 2011

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as an economic indicator.

For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September, last updated on October 26.  The last value is 200,333:

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Here is the chart depicting the measure on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago:

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Lastly, a chart from Doug Short’s post of October 26 titled “Durable Goods Orders In Historical Perspective” showing the Durable Goods New Orders vs. the S&P500:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1277.52 as this post is written

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Volatility In Income Among The Most Affluent Americans

Friday, October 28th, 2011

In the October 22-23 Wall Street Journal, there was an article titled “The Wild Ride Of The 1%.”

This article discusses the fluctuations, and causes of fluctuations, of the wealth of the country’s most affluent.

While the entire article is worthwhile reading, I found the following excerpts to be particularly notable:

The American rich, who used to be the most stable slice of the personal economy, are now the most volatile, with escalating booms and busts.

also:

The super-high earners have the biggest crashes. The number of Americans making $1 million or more fell 40% between 2007 and 2009, to 236,883, while their combined incomes fell by nearly 50%—far greater than the less than 2% drop in total incomes of those making $50,000 or less, according to Internal Revenue Service figures.

also:

Rising debt plays a role. While the rich are often portrayed as thrifty “millionaires next door,” the era of low interest rates and easy money has turned them into a leveraged elite. The household debt of the top 1% surged more than three-fold between 1989 and 2007, to $600 billion, and grew faster than their net worth.

Add to that the growing arms race in conspicuous consumption and you get big spenders who are only one crisis away from financial ruin.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1284.59 as this post is written

 

 

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October 19 Gallup Poll On Americans’ Personal Finances – Notable Excerpts

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

On October 19, Gallup released poll results titled “Americans Grow More Negative About Their Personal Finances.”

I find this poll interesting for a variety of reasons; perhaps chief among them is as another indication of growing financial strain among households.  A few excerpts of note:

Nearly one in four U.S. adults (22%) now rate their personal financial situation as “poor.” This is up slightly from the 16% to 19% range seen during and after the official U.S. recession, and is the highest percentage since Gallup began asking this question in 2001.

also:

Americans are also less hopeful about their future personal financial situations. Nearly half (48%) say their personal financial situation is “getting worse,” up from 41% in April and nearly tying the record-high 49% who said so in April 2008. A new low of 29% say their personal financial situation is getting better.

also:

The fact that they are now even more likely than they were during the recession to rate their economic situation as poor helps explain why 80% of Americans maintain that the U.S. economy remains in recession. Further, the 48% who say their situation is getting worse is now similar to the percentage who said so in the months just prior to the U.S. economic collapse, perhaps giving fodder to those who predict a double-dip recession.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1209.82 as this post is written

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Article On Household Incomes – Notable Excerpts

Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Yesterday the New York Times had an article titled “Recession Officially Over, U.S. Incomes Kept Falling.”  It discusses trends in real median family income over the last few years.

While the entire article is worthwhile, here are a few excerpts I found most notable:

In a grim sign of the enduring nature of the economic slump, household income declined more in the two years after the recession ended than it did during the recession itself, new research has found.

Between June 2009, when the recession officially ended, and June 2011, inflation-adjusted median household income fell 6.7 percent, to $49,909, according to a study by two former Census Bureau officials. During the recession — from December 2007 to June 2009 — household income fell 3.2 percent.

also:

The full 9.8 percent drop in income from the start of the recession to this June — the most recent month in the study — appears to be the largest in several decades, according to other Census Bureau data. Gordon W. Green Jr., who wrote the report with John F. Coder, called the decline “a significant reduction in the American standard of living.”

also:

One reason pay has stagnated is that many people who lost their jobs in the recession — and remained out of work for months — have taken pay cuts in order to be hired again. In a separate study, Henry S. Farber, an economics professor at Princeton, found that people who lost jobs in the recession and later found work again made an average of 17.5 percent less than they had in their old jobs.

“As a labor economist, I do not think the recession has ended,” Mr. Farber said. “Job losers are having more trouble than ever before finding full-time jobs.”

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1194.89 as this post is written

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Our Current Economic “Man-Made Problems”

Friday, September 30th, 2011

On September 8, President Obama gave the Address by the President to a Joint Session of Congress.  It concerned the economy and the American Jobs Act.  (I highlighted what I believed to be the most notable excerpts in a September 9 blog post titled “President Obama’s Address of September 8 2011“)

In the Address, President Obama said the following:

President Kennedy once said, “Our problems are man-made –- therefore they can be solved by man.  And man can be as big as he wants.”

This quote is from President Kennedy’s American University Speech of June 10, 1963.  (another transcript is found here.)

I find this quote to be interesting in its logic.  From today’s perspective, how applicable is it to our economic problems, the context in which President Obama was referring to?

I continue to believe that our current economic situation is of great complexity.  As I wrote in “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation” :

What separates this period of economic weakness from those that have preceded it is its complexity.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1160.40 as this post is written

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Total Household Net Worth As Of 2Q 2011 – A Long-Term Chart

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

In the September 18 post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2011“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP.

For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2011:Q2).  The last value is $58.463 Trillion:

The above chart was last updated as of September 16, 2011.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1129.56 as this post is written

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Hunger In The Chicago Area

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

Yesterday CBSChicago.com had a story titled “Study Finds 1 in 5 Chicagoans Are Hungry.”

Although the entire article is worthwhile, I find the following excerpts to be most notable (and disconcerting):

The Greater Chicago Food Depository has, for the first time, done a neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown of hunger in the Chicago area.

As WBBM’s Mike Krauser reports, some of the numbers are staggering.

The numbers are growing—and about 20 percent of Chicagoans are hungry, a new analysis found.

also:

As CBS 2′s Derrick Blakley reports, the report found nearly 850,000 people in Cook County aren’t sure where their next meal is coming from.

also:

At St. Sylvester’s Pantry in Logan Square, the story’s much the same. Three years ago, they served 225 families. Now, they serve more than 800.

Deacon Fred Ortiz said, “We have people that have been in banking, people that have been in teaching, medical fields. We have seen a very, very big increase in that type of client coming in for service.”

Overall, the Chicago Food Depository says visits to food pantries are soaring, up 58 percent in the last three years.

Depository CEO Kate Maehr said, “That hunger is not restricted to one neighborhood. It’s in every community and every suburban community in our county and across our state in record numbers.”

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1126.84 as this post is written

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