Category Archives: Stock Market

S&P500 And Long-Term VIX Chart – Through January 5, 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart of the S&P500 and VIX from year 2003 through Friday’s (January 5, 2018) close.  The closing price for the S&P500 was 2743.15 and the VIX had a closing value of 9.22.  A dashed blue line depicts the VIX value of 20.  Price labels are also shown:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

VIX vs S&P500 chart

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2743.15 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – January 8, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – will occur.

(note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through January 5, 2018 with a last price of 2743.15), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 2008

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2743.15 as this post is written

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – January 3, 2018 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s (January 2, 2018) close, which had a closing value of 9.77.

Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

VIX Weekly LOG

Here is the VIX Monthly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-month moving average, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

VIX Monthly Chart from the year 2000

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2695.81 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – January 3, 2018 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 and prominent stocks

This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 monthly since 1980

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2695.81 as this post is written

Stock Index Charts DJIA DJTA S&P500 & Nasdaq Composite

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.

As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 – December 29, 2017:

DJIA since 1900

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900 – December 29, 2017:

DJTA since 1900

The S&P500, from 1925 – December 29, 2017:

S&P500 since 1925

The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978 – December 29, 2017:

Nasdaq since 1978

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2673.61 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of December 14, 2017:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 expected earnings

from page 23:

S&P500 annual earnings

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2681.47 as this post is written

S&P500 Bottom Up EPS Forecasts Years 2017, 2018 And 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 18, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$131.49/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$146.30/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$161.17/share

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2687.83 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2017 And 2018 – As Of December 15, 2017

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 15, 2017:

Year 2017 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $125.03/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $114.71/share

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $144.54/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $134.58/share

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2690.16 as this post is written

S&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2017

The December 2017 Livingston Survey published on December 15, 2017 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown:

Dec. 30, 2017  2644.8

Jun. 30, 2018   2739.8

Dec. 29, 2018  2805.0

Dec. 31, 2019  2980.0

These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2675.81 as this post is written

2018 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 11, 2017 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “2018 Outlook:  The Bull Market’s Next Act.”

Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2017 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.

A couple of excerpts:

Given synchronized global growth and rising corporate profits, 2018 could be another good year for stocks, notwithstanding the bull’s advancing age. The S&P 500 could gain about 7%, mirroring similar gains in corporate profits, according to the consensus forecast of 10 investment strategists at major U.S. investment banks and money-management firms surveyed by Barron’s each December. The group’s predictions range from 2675 to 3100, with a mean estimate of about 2840.

Also:

OUR PROGNOSTICATORS EXPECT S&P 500 earnings to climb to $145 in 2018 from an expected $131.45 this year. Most estimates assume that global growth will spur earnings gains, with an additional boost coming from U.S. tax cuts. Depending on the final tax bill, they figure that lower corporate taxes could be worth 5% to 10% of earnings growth, or anywhere from $7 to $14 a share. But in the unlikely event that no tax cuts are passed, the market could drop sharply.

Industry analysts forecast S&P earnings of $146.20 for next year, not including tax cuts. If analysts revise their estimates higher in coming months to account for the positive impact of lower taxes, stocks could get a further boost.

As seen in the article, the investment strategists expect an average 2018 GDP growth of 2.595%.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2658.04 as this post is written