Archive for the ‘Real Estate’ Category

Identifying The Housing Bubble

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

The Boston Federal Reserve recently came out with a report dated August 12 titled “Reasonable People Did Disagree:  Optimism and Pessimism About the U.S. Housing Market Before the Crash.” (pdf)

A sentence from the abstract is particularly interesting: “We conclude by arguing that economic theory provides little guidance as to what
should be the “correct” level of asset prices —including housing prices.”

My comments:

This is the latest effort from The Federal Reserve which questions whether asset bubbles,  in this case the Housing Bubble, can be accurately identified as they form.

While one may argue as to whether economic theory can accurately spot asset bubbles, there definitely is a chronic need to do so – as well as to take proper remedial action.  As I wrote in an April 8 post, “Our societal inability to spot and prevent asset bubbles is problematical.”  We simply can’t afford to go through numerous asset bubble booms and busts.   This issue is especially critical now given that there are numerous large asset bubbles currently in existence on a global basis.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

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MacroMarkets June 2010 Home Price Expectations Survey

Friday, June 25th, 2010

On Wednesday (June 23) MacroMarkets released its June Home Price Expectations Survey results.

Here is the Press Release (pdf); the accompanying chart is seen below:

As one can see from the above chart, the expectation is that not only has the residential real estate market hit a “bottom” as far as pricing; but that steady yet mild appreciation will occur through 2014.

The survey detail is interesting.  The most “bearish” of the forecasters is seen as Gary Shilling, with a forecast of 18.78% cumulative price decline through 2014.  A couple of other forecasters are close to this forecast, including John Brynjolfsson, with a forecast of a 18.08% cumulative price decline through 2014; and Mark Hanson with -17.37%.  Of note, all three of these most “bearish” forecasters see the preponderance of losses “front-loaded” (i.e. occurring over the nearest years, 2010-2012).

For a variety of reasons, I believe that even these “most bearish” of forecasts will prove too optimistic in hindsight.  Although an 18% decline is substantial, from a longer-term historical perspective such a decline is rather tame in light of the wild excesses that have occurred over the years.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people have an optimistic view at this time regarding future residential real estate pricing trends, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Furthermore, there exists outsized potential for a price decline of severe magnitude, unfortunately.

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Residential Real Estate Market Characteristics

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

I found this MacroMarkets web page to be an interesting characterization of the U.S. residential real estate market.

Here is an excerpt:

“With an aggregate capital value of $16.6 trillion at the end of 2009, real property owned by United States households comprises the largest real estate marketplace – and one of the largest asset classes in the world.”

There is also investment performance information on the page, with a table showing relative performance of various asset classes.  Of note, the table encompasses a timeframe of June 1987 through December 2009.

In my opinion, one needs to be very careful when assessing price data of residential real estate due to a variety of factors.

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MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey

Monday, May 24th, 2010

On May 19 The Wall Street Journal had an article about a new housing survey called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey.

From the MacroMarkets.com website:

“MacroMarkets has assembled a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States.”

The Wall Street Journal article summarized the May 2010 survey results as follows:

“The analysts surveyed by MacroMarkets on average expect home prices, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index, to rise about 12% in the five years ending Dec. 31, 2014. As of Dec. 31, that index was down about 28% from its peak level in mid-2006.”

However, if one looks at the detail (pdf), one sees a significant differing of opinions, with the highest cumulative gain (through 2014) expected to be 36.74% and the lowest a loss of 17.99%.

This survey should be interesting to watch as it provides a relatively broad view of housing price expectations on a recurring basis.

As for the survey results – I find them interesting.  The overall consensus view on housing seems to mirror this survey’s average forecasted results – that of mild but steady home price appreciation over the next few years.

_____

I’ve written extensively about housing, as it is of the utmost importance to our economic situation.  Our national real estate problems are vastly complex and highly problematical.  Perhaps my overall view on the situation and the path of housing prices is best summarized by my January 8, 2010 post.

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Home Prices Vs. Gold

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

On April 23, chartoftheday.com had an interesting chart, shown below, that compares the median home price vs. the price of Gold:

Traditionally, houses have been viewed as “hard assets.”  However, as one can see above, their recent (from a long-term historical perspective) price pattern seems more geared to that of a “paper asset” – i.e. strong performance during the ’80s and ’90s, while significantly underperforming Gold for roughly 7 years.

There are many other observations and interpretations that can be made from this ratio as well.  It certainly “frames” home prices in a different light, especially from an investment standpoint.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see how this ratio evolves…

________

My previous posts on Gold can be found under the “Gold” tag.

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The Latest Housing Intervention

Monday, March 29th, 2010

Saturday’s Wall Street Journal chronicles the latest housing intervention plan in a story titled “Mortgage Plan Remodeled Again.”

I have written extensively about the residential real estate problems and dynamics thereof.

It strongly appears as if we, as a nation, have come to a place where there is hardly a real estate intervention that we don’t like.

I think this situation is one filled with peril, as I strongly believe (and have written extensively of) the unintended consequences and hidden risks of interventions.

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“I Can Own Cheaper Than I Can Rent”

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

One of the commonly stated reasons for buying a home now, as opposed to renting, is that “I can own (a home) cheaper than I can rent.”

This is no doubt the case in many areas of the country, especially those that have experienced large declines in residential real estate prices.

Is this condition, where one can own cheaper than renting, a valid justification for buying a home?

I would argue that it is not, for many reasons.  Here are three of the many reasons:

First, “I can own cheaper than I can rent” usually refers to the condition that the monthly mortgage payment is cheaper than the monthly rent payment.  Is this the main criteria that one should use when evaluating what is likely the largest financial commitment one will ever make, that of buying a house?  Of course not -  there should be many factors that weigh into such a decision.

Second, as indicated in the real estate valuation story in my last post, historically when house prices fell to or below the equivalent rent levels, a “bottom in (home) prices” had either been realized or was close.   However, as I have written in previous posts, our national real estate situation is far dissimilar to that of prior years.  As such, comparisons need to be adjusted accordingly.

Third, one should be very mindful of one’s ability to sell real estate in today’s real estate market, should one need to.  Normally, the ability to sell real estate in a timely fashion, and at a “decent price,” is not a major issue.  However, for many people currently looking to sell a house, it has become a very significant factor.  While I could post some statistics with regard to unsold home inventories and the like, I will not do so as I feel these statistics are significantly skewed (and as such unrepresentative) due to a variety of factors.

For these three reasons, as well as many others, I feel that on an “all things considered” basis, the fact that one “can own cheaper than renting” in many areas is to be considered more of a “red flag” than a “green light” as far as buying a house is concerned.

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An Interesting Article On Housing Prices

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

I came across an interesting Fortune Magazine story dated February 16 titled “Where’s housing headed? Follow rents.”  The link can be found here.

Of course, given my previous posts on residential real estate I don’t agree with many aspects of the story, especially the statement “Given that analysis, it’s likely that prices will fall another 5% or so nationwide.”

However, I do find the story interesting as it portrays a case for the commonly-held belief that the residential real estate market decline is nearly over.

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Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Situation

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

An article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal presents a thorough summary of the situation at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The article is titled, “No Exit in Sight for U.S. As Fannie, Freddie Flail.”  Here is the link to the story:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704362004575001042824028862.html?KEYWORDS=no+exit+in+sight+for+us

I’ve commented extensively on the U.S. real estate situation, and the national attempts to intervene in this market.  Those posts can be found under the “Real Estate” and “Intervention” categories.

With regard to the aforementioned article, there are three items that I feel are especially notable.  For now, I will post them without comment; I may comment on them in the future.  The first is this:

“On a recent afternoon, employees at Freddie’s headquarters here peppered Mr. Haldeman with concerns about the company’s future. He responded that they were “fortunate” to have such a clear mission—the government’s foreclosure-prevention drive. “We’re doing what’s best for the country,” he told them.”

The second is this:

“We’re making decisions on [loan modifications] and other issues, without being guided solely by profitability, that no purely private bank ever could,” Mr. Haldeman said in late January in a speech to the Detroit Economic Club.”

The third is this:

“The government is willing to tolerate such open-ended exposure for two reasons. First, it sees the companies as essential cogs in the fragile housing market. Fannie and Freddie buy mortgages originated by others, holding some as investments and repackaging others for sale to investors as securities. Together with the Federal Housing Administration, they fund nine in 10 American mortgages. Worries about potential insolvency would cripple their ability to fund home loans, which would hamstring the market….By using Fannie and Freddie for such initiatives, the White House doesn’t have to go to Congress for funding. The Treasury and White House can simply issue instructions to Fannie and Freddie via their federal regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, or FHFA.”

_______

In December 2008, I wrote an article titled, “Business Planning Principles Applied to the Stimulus / Intervention Efforts.”  That article can be found listed along the right-hand side of the home page.

I wrote the article for many reasons…perhaps chief among them because it was clear that the various interventions lacked a suitable managerial framework.  The “exit strategy” bullet point in the article seems particularly germane to the current intervention efforts being orchestrated through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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Article On Strategic Defaults

Tuesday, January 26th, 2010

I ran across this article from U.S. News & World Report, dated 1/19/10 concerning “strategic defaults”:

http://www.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/real-estate/articles/2010/01/19/strategic-defaults-and-the-foreclosure-crisis.html

The article is interesting in that it summarizes various facets of the “strategic default” situation and presents an interesting example of the dynamics that one “underwater” homeowner faces. 

I have mentioned “strategic defaults” on numerous occasions.  It is a very important “wildcard” in the residential real estate equation.

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