Archive for the ‘Economic Forecasts’ Category

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The ADS Index Presented In Various Charts

Monday, February 27th, 2012

On October 27, 2009, I wrote a post titled “Aruoba -Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS)  Index.”

That post explained the then-new ADS Index, and I have been featuring a chart of the ADS in the monthly Updates On Economic Indicators.

On February 23, Doug Short published a post titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index”  which shows a variety of longer-term charts depicting the ADS Index.

There are three charts in that post that I find particularly notable, and they are shown below.

The first is a reference chart of the ADS Index since 2000:

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The second chart displays the ADS Index in blue and the CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index), which is presented on a 3-month Moving Average basis (i.e. CFNAI-MA3), overlaid in red.  As well, a linear regression is shown for each measure:

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Lastly, a chart that compares the ADS (depicted on a 91-day moving average) in blue vs. GDP in green and red, with linear regressions (dashed lines) of each:

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1358.38 as this post is written

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Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 24, 2012 Update

Sunday, February 26th, 2012

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and have reaffirmed that view on Friday.  I featured excerpts from their September 30 statement  in the October 3 post (“ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts“)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through February 24, of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of February 24 titled “ECRI Defends Its Recession Call” :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through February 24:

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1365.74 as this post is written

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – February 23, 2012 Update

Friday, February 24th, 2012

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on February 23, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 2-17-12 on a weekly basis.  The present level is .363 :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1363.46 as this post is written

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Updates On Economic Indicators February 2012

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 21, 2012:

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The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the February 6 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The January update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in January and then slowing to 1.6% in June. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 2/17/12 the WLI was at 123.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.7%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of February 17 titled “ECRI Controversial Recession Call:  Fifth Consecutive Improvement in the Growth Index” :

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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 9 was at 41.9, as seen below:

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 2-11-10 to 2-11-12:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the February 17 release, the LEI was at 94.9 and the CEI was at 103.5 in January.

An excerpt from the February 17 release:

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Recent data reflect an economy that started the year on a positive note.  The CEI shows some small signs of economic strengthening in the fourth quarter and continued to point in this direction in January. The LEI suggests these conditions will continue and could possibly even pick up this spring and summer.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1362.12 as this post is written

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Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2012 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

The Philadelphia Fed First Quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 10.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations:

GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2012 : 2.3%

full-year 2013 : 2.7%

full-year 2014 : 3.0%

full-year 2015:  3.1%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2012: 8.3%

for 2013: 7.9%

for 2014: 7.4%

for 2015: 6.7%

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As for “the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters,” estimates range from 9.5-15.8% for each of the quarters through Q1 2013.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present through the year 2021) with the expected inflation of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.6-2.5% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1345.61 as this post is written

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The February 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2012.  The headline is “Rosier View Has Familiar Ring.”

The commentary largely focuses on the economic forecasts of 2011 and their accuracy, as well as thoughts as to the economic characteristics of 2012.  Additionally, within the article was a link that detailed how the economists were ranked for their 2011 predictions.

While I found many aspects of the article to be interesting, here are the excerpts I found most notable:

Economists, once bitten, are being cautious this time around. In The Wall Street Journal’s latest forecasting survey, conducted this month, economists predicted only modestly faster growth this year than last. They expect gross domestic product to increase 2.5% this year, up from the 1.6% it grew in 2011. That’s their strongest expectation in five months, but it still represents slower growth than they predicted a year ago.

also:

The 49 economists who participated in the latest Journal survey—not all answered every question—put the odds of a recession in the next year at just 16%, down from a 33% chance as recently as September.

Also, as seen in the Q&A section (in the spreadsheet), there were various questions.  Perhaps the most interesting was titled “Forecast Risks,” which included the question “Is the risk to your 2012 forecast more to the upside or downside?”, to which 60% responded to the upside and 40% to the downside.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2012:  2.5%

full-year 2013:  2.7%

full-year 2014:  3.1%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2012: 8.0%

December 2013: 7.4%

December 2014:  6.8%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2012: 2.62%

December 2013: 3.28%

December 2014:  3.80%

CPI:

December 2012:  2.2%

December 2013:  2.4%

December 2014:  2.6%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2012: $97.17

(note: I comment upon this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1351.77 as this post is written

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Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 10, 2012 Update

Sunday, February 12th, 2012

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession.”  I featured excerpts from their statement in the October 3 post (“ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts“)

Below is a long-term chart, on a weekly basis through February 10, of the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary) from Doug Short’s blog post of February 10 titled “ECRI’s Puzzling Recession Call:  The Growth Index Contraction Eases Yet Again” :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr. through February 10:

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1342.64 as this post is written

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – February 9, 2012 Update

Friday, February 10th, 2012

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on February 9, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 2-3-12 on a weekly basis.  The present level is .435 :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1340.76 as this post is written

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Updates On Economic Indicators January 2012

Friday, January 27th, 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 26, 2012:

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The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the January 3 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The December update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in January and then slowing to 1.8% in May. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 1/13/12 the WLI was at 123.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.5%.

A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of January 20 titled “ECRI Recession Call:  Growth Index Contraction Eases” :

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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 9 was at 41.9, as seen below:

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 1-21-10 to 1-21-12:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the January 26 release, the LEI was at 94.3 and the CEI was at 103.4 in December.

An excerpt from the January 26 release:

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The CEI and other recent data reflect an economy that ended 2011 on a positive note and the LEI provides some reason for cautious optimism in the­ first half of 2012. This somewhat positive outlook for a strengthening domestic economy would seem to be at odds with a global economy that is losing some steam. Looking ahead, the big question remains whether cooling conditions elsewhere will limit domestic growth or, conversely, growth in the U.S. will lend some economic support to the rest of the globe.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1318.43 as this post is written

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Conference Board CEO Confidence 4Q 2011 – Notable Excerpts

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

On January 10, The Conference Board released its 4th Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 49, up from 42 in the third quarter.

Notable excerpts from this January 10 Press Release include:

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “The bounce back in CEO Confidence in the final months of 2011 was due primarily to an improved short-term outlook. Overall, however, CEO confidence remains rather subdued. On the inflation front, CEOs anticipate price increases of about 1.8 percent for 2012, down from last year’s estimate of 3.3 percent.”

also:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was less pessimistic, with 17 percent saying conditions have improved compared to six months ago, up from just 11 percent last quarter.

Other recent surveys of business executives include the December 14 Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey (pdf) and the December 15 Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf).

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1326.06 as this post is written

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