EconomicGreenfield

The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published today, September 16, 2011.  The headline is “Economists Say That U.S. Recession Looks More Likely.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

Economists see a one in three chance the U.S. will slip into recession over the next twelve months and doubt any steps the Federal Reserve might take at its meeting next week can change that.

also:

The majority of economists said all three steps—launching Operation Twist, altering interest on reserves or setting more explicit targets—would have little to no effect. Twenty-two of the 50 economists who responded to the question said more asset purchases would have somewhat or a significant impact on the economy, but 19 said the effect would be small and nine said it would be negative.

Also, a question in the detail (spreadsheet) asked “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability that the U.S. is in a recession already.”  The average response was 15%.

Another question in the detail asked for the economists to grade President Obama’s jobs proposal on a scale of 0-100.  The responses were the following:

A (90-100)         10%

B (80-89)             8%

C (70-79)            13%

D (60-69)             18%

F (Below 60)        51%

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.5%

full-year 2012:  2.4%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 9.1%

December 2012: 8.6%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.37%

December 2012: 3.17%

CPI:

December 2011:  3.1%

December 2012:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $88.95

for 12/31/2012: $92.82

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1213.89 as this post is written

The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 12.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.7%

full-year 2012 : 2.6%

full-year 2013 : 2.9%

full-year 2014 : 3.1%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2011: 9.0%

for 2012: 8.6%

for 2013: 8.1%

for 2014: 7.6%

-

As for “the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters,” estimates range from 17.2-20.9% for each of the quarters through Q3 2012.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present through the year 2020) with the expected inflation of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.4-3.2% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1123.53 as this post is written

The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published August 12, 2011.  The headline is “Feeble Numbers Stir Recession Fears.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put the odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%—up from 17% only a month ago.

Also, a question in the detail (spreadsheet) asked “Please grade the economic leadership in the following regions” – which generated universally poor marks from respondents.

Another question in the detail asked “If you were to go short on a currency over the next three years what would it be?”  The responses were the following:

Euro:  40%

U.S. Dollar:  17%

Yen:  11%

Swiss Franc:  11%

Yuan:  9%

Other:  11%

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 1.6%

full-year 2012:  2.5%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 9.0%

December 2012: 8.4%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.83%

December 2012: 3.54%

CPI:

December 2011:  2.9%

December 2012:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $86.18

for 12/31/2012: $88.89

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1172.64 as this post is written

The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published July 18, 2011.  The headline is “Dearth of Demand Seen Behind Weak Hiring.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

In the survey, conducted July 8-13 and released Monday, 53 economists—not all of whom answer every question—were asked the main reason employers aren’t hiring more readily. Of the 51 who responded to the question, 31 cited lack of demand (65%) and 14 (27%) cited uncertainty about government policy. The others said hiring overseas was more appealing.

also:

“We’re hiring a little here and there—but it’s not what it should be,” said Daniel Cunningham, chief executive of Long-Stanton Manufacturing Co., of Hamilton, Ohio. “And it’s because of the lack of demand.” Long-Stanton, which makes metal parts for the aerospace, medical and other industries, has snapped back from the recession, “but volume is still not up to where it was, or where it should be,” Mr. Cunningham said. Long-Stanton is privately held and has 75 employees.

Mr. Cunningham said part of what makes him hesitant is the extreme volatility he sees—with business up one month, then down the next. “Instead of good years, it’s like you have a good month—or a good three months,” he says, adding that this makes it difficult for him to feel confident of steady demand.

In the Q&A section (spreadsheet detail) there is an interesting question about bubbles.  Here is the question and responses:

Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability that there is a bubble in the following markets:

Property prices in China  64%

Gold  61%

U.S. Internet stocks  48%

U.S. Treasury Bonds  44%

Leveraged Loans  34%

Equities Generally  24%

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2011 : 2.6%

full-year 2012:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 8.8%

December 2012: 8.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 3.55%

December 2012: 4.24%

CPI:

December 2011:  3.1%

December 2012:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $95.59

for 12/31/2012: $98.69

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1301.03 as this post is written