EconomicGreenfield

On June 20, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey titled “CEO & CFO Surveys 2Q 2011.”

Subsequent to that post, on July 8, the Conference Board released its 2nd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 55, down from 67 in the first quarter.

Notable excerpts from the July 8 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was much more pessimistic than last quarter. Only 33 percent say conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 85 percent last quarter. In assessing their own industries, business leaders were also more negative. Now, just 40 percent say conditions have improved, compared with 61 percent in the first quarter.

CEOs’ optimism about the short-term outlook also declined sharply. Currently, only 43 percent foresee an improvement in economic conditions over the next six months, down from 66 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries are about as pessimistic, with just 44 percent of CEOs expecting conditions to improve in the months ahead, down from 49 percent last quarter.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1308.87 as this post is written

On June 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 2nd quarter.  The June Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was released on June 8.  Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions.

In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook Index, which decreased to 109.9 from 113 in the 1st quarter.  Also stated in the report, “In terms of the overall U.S. economy, member CEOs estimate real GDP will grow by 2.8 percent in 2011, a slight decrease from the 2.9 percent projected in the first quarter of 2011.”

As well, ““Fully 87% of our CEOs anticipate higher sales,” said Ivan G. Seidenberg, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Verizon Communications. “As a result, more than half of our CEOs plan to increase both capital spending and U.S. hiring.  This continues a positive trend for our companies’ activity heading into the second half of 2011.””

In the CFO Survey, “Optimism among chief financial officers in the U.S. has fallen, but spending plans indicate continued moderate growth over the next year.”

Also, with regard to hiring, “U.S. companies expect domestic employment to increase by 0.7 percent over the next year.This rate of growth is down from last quarter and implies that, over the next year, the U.S. economy will average fewer than 100,000 new jobs created each month.”

As well, “Nearly 10 percent of firms say they would like to hire, but cannot find employees with the right skills, and 16 percent say they would like to hire more but are resource constrained. Only twelve percent of firms say they are overstaffed for current demand.”

The CFO survey contains the Optimism Index chart, showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 57, as seen below:

It should be interesting to see how well the CEOs and CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO Surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1271.50 as this post is written

On March 31, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey.

Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 1st Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 67, up from 62 in the first quarter.

An excerpt from the April 7 Press Release:

“CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was much more upbeat, with 85 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, up from 56 percent last quarter. In assessing their own industries, business leaders were also more positive. Now, nearly 61 percent say conditions have improved, compared with 55 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

CEOs’ optimism about the short-term outlook continues to grow. Currently, 66 percent expect an improvement in economic conditions over the next six months, up from 56 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries, however, are slightly less optimistic, with 49 percent of CEOs expecting conditions to improve in the months ahead, down from 51 percent last quarter.”

(past posts on CEO and CFO Surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1328.17 as this post is written

On March 30 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 1st quarter.  The March Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was released on March 9.  Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions.

In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook Index, which increased to 113 from 101 in the 4th quarter.  Also stated in the report, “In terms of the overall U.S. economy, member CEOs estimate real GDP will grow by 2.9 percent in 2011, an increase from the 2.5 percent expected in the fourth quarter of 2010.”

As well, “With today’s survey results, the last three quarters have shown steady improvement in the CEO economic outlook. Our CEOs see momentum in the economy over the next six months, with increased demand fueling greater investment and job creation,” said Ivan G. Seidenberg, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Verizon Communications. “This shift continues a trend as reflected in recent employment data, with the private sector leading the way in creating more jobs.”

In the CFO Survey, “CFO optimism has increased, rising to the highest level since early 2007.”  Also, “Chief financial officers in the U.S. have a more optimistic outlook about the economy, with robust growth expected in earnings and capital spending. Overall employment is expected to grow slowly, though some job categories are in strong demand. However, an uptick in inflation would pose notable risks for many firms.”

The CFO survey contains the Optimism Index chart, as seen below:

It should be interesting to see how well the CEOs and CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9 post.

(past posts on CEO and CFO Surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1328.26 as this post is written

On December 27, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey.

Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 4th Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 62, up from 50 in the third quarter.

An excerpt from the January 11 Press Release:

“The bounce back in CEO confidence signals that the cloud of pessimism that prevailed in the third quarter has lifted and CEOs are once again optimistic,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “The improvement in both current and future conditions suggests a strong finish to 2010 and continued growth in the first half of 2011.”

As a reference, the January 27 ContraryInvestor.com site contained the following chart that shows a long-term chart of The Conference Board CEO Confidence Survey readings, along with those readings plotted against changes in GDP, as noted:

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A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1276.34 as this post is written