America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Doug Short had a blog post of January 31, 2017 (“Consumer Confidence Retreated in January“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 5, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2016, updated on January 27, 2017. This value is $227,018 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of January 27, 2017. As one can see, one of the three measures is at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.9%, Worse Than Forecast ” post of January 27, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 27, 2017: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2017: (current reading of CFNAI is .14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07): – The ECRI …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 19, 2017 update (reflecting data through January 13, 2017) is -1.210. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through January 20, 2017) from Doug Short’s blog …