In the September 5, 2016 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Beware the Bear.”
Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2016 and 2017 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.
Two excerpts from the article:
Their mean expectation for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is 2138 at year end, below Friday’s close of 2180. Four strategists call themselves bullish, three are in the bear camp, and three are neutral.
also:
The average of strategists’ earnings-per-share estimates for the companies in the S&P is about $119 in 2016, down from a projected $123.50 last December and $129 in September 2015. That isn’t very different from the bottom-up industry analysts’ consensus of about $118, which is down from $132 some 12 months ago.
Of the eight strategists who provided 2017 S&P500 earnings estimates, the average is $125.88. The article also mentions that among the investment strategists, average expected 2016 GDP growth is 1.7% and 2.0% (from nine strategists’ forecasts) in 2017.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2186.48 as this post is written