Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .27; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.10):
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of August 19, 2016 (incorporating data through August 12, 2016) the WLI was at 137.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.4%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of August 19, 2016:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 13, 2016:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the August 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.3, the CEI was at 113.9, and the LAG was 121.8 in July.
An excerpt from the August 18 release:
“The U.S. LEI picked up again in July, suggesting moderate economic growth should continue through the end of 2016,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “There may even be some moderate upside growth potential if recent improvements in manufacturing and construction are sustained, and average consumer expectations don’t deteriorate further.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 18:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2179.07 as this post is written